Shouldn't there be more hurricanes, if man-made global warming is true?
It is apparent that global warming supporters virtually root for the kind of horrible weather conditions that can help them promote global warming "fixes," such as taking away SUVs and limiting the amout of heating and air conditioning you can do in your home.
They predicted a major rise in hurricanes after the bad season two years ago, but the opposite has happened.
Do you think it makes the global warm-ers look like alarmists? Do you think it exposes them as people with a political agenda, which would be stop technological advances and allow the government to exert more - total - control over the masses?
afratta4372007-09-08T21:00:56Z
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no. man made global warming causes them to disappear during odd years. even years get the bad hurricanes.
unless, of course, we start getting a lot of hurricanes this year. in that case, the opposite applies.
what ever actually happens OR doesn't will be caused by global warming.
Hurricanes happen in cycles, and we are coming out of a slow cycle. That is a cycle with fewer hurricanes then normal and we are starting on a new cycle where we should see more hurricanes then normal.
Hurricanes happen when there is a difference in ocean temperature and air temperature the greater the difference the greater potential for a strong hurricane. If ocean and air temperatures are the same you don’t get hurricanes. So unless the ocean is warming faster then the air temperature, then global warming would mean weaker hurricanes. I haven’t seen any data on the rise of ocean temperatures compared with the rise in air temperatures, if someone has a link I like to read up on it. But from the information I have the air temperature is rising faster then ocean temperature, but I haven’t seen the data, their methods, etc.
Yes it makes SOME global warming people look like alarmists; namely the one’s who are on the news, saying the sky is falling. Some are very informed, and can show data, and are willing to discuss global warming in a rational matter some aren’t. But the same can be said for those who think global warming is bunk.
No, there should not be more hurricanes if global warming is true. All weather associated with rain on this planet, is primarily dependent on the difference of the temperature of the upper troposphere and the surface. Under an accelerated warming associated with increased CO2, the upper troposphere would be warmer because of an enhanced greenhouse effect, and there would less convection, to drive the hurricanes. That is why hurricane season does not peak until September. In July and early August the seas are very warm, but so is the atmosphere, only until mid August does the upper atmosphere begin to cool because of the Earth's axial tilt. However the oceans cool at a much slower rate.
Some of the most violent weather in the Solar system happens at temperatures well below the freezing point of water, it is all about gradients.
If you look at figure 16 in the link below, you will find that hurricane activity has not changed much over that last 50 years, if anything activity has declined.
Early predictions were made several decasdes ago and are fundementally correct, it was predicted there would be an increase in the number and intensity of storms. These same predictions appear in each of the IPCC reports, the first of which was published in 1990.
To eliminate anomalies over short periods of time climate is based on periods of 30 years and longer, in the last 30 years there has been a 50% increase in the number of storms and an 80% increase in intensity.
Global warming causes a slow and progressive change in the climate, over long periods of time many changes are observed including changes in storm patterns. 2005 was an exceptionally bad year, an anomaly even taking global warming into consideration. Fortunately such years are unlikely to occur again for a long time.
Last year was a quiet year, this year is average, the last three years as a whole are above average, so are the last 5, 10, 15 years...
One thing that's interesting is that the increase in storm activity is considerably beyond that which was predicted which has led some people to speculate that there may be other factors besides global warming involved.
We know the conditions in which hurricanes form and a warmer planet with warmer oceans makes an ideal spawning ground, it's to be expected that there will be a long term increase in numbers and intensities but one, two or even 10 years is too short a period of time to make any judgements.
The question assumes warming is man-made. Careful how you ask questions. Global warming is a fact. The amount humans contribute to global warming is debated. Can hurricanes be a result of global warming? Absolutely. Heat is the driving force of hurricanes. Huricanes require special conditions to get started. It takes a series of synchronous events to drive a hurricane like Katrina. Study the perfect storm. Various weather events came together to create such a weather event. Hurricanes are like that, but most hurricanes fizzle out before threatening N. America. The polar ice caps are melting. The earth's climate follows long cycles of warming and cooling. The seriousness of the melting poles and glaciers is underestimated. Humans depend very much on the snow and ice melt for fresh water. The sea level is rising. An alarmist by nature is not looking at the long term. An alarmist wouldn't bother warning people for 4 decades. The warming is so slow we believe we are immune to the consequences.
We are messing with Mother Nature and she will strike back. Every large natural cycle on the planet is being influenced by human activity.
Why are we not doing more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? The population increase is exponential. Half of the world lives in poverty and long term strategies are not considered. The strategy is to burn the last tree like Easter Island. By 2050 there will be 9 billion people. Most of the large mammals will be extinct in the wild. People may need to purchase air to survive like we purchase water now.