I seem to recall meteorologists predicting another disasterous hurricane season.?

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Humburto hit Texas as a Cat. 1

But yeah, I dont believe in the weatherman....Show more

Since you didn't bother with the numbers or the verification of the forecast, I suspect that you didn't even look.

Here are the numbers for this years season.

Here is the original forecast from the NWS prior to the Hurricane season.

Number of named storms 13 to 16.

Number of hurricanes 7 to 9.

Number of major hurricanes 3 to 5.


Here is what currently has happened in 2007.

Number of named storms = 14

Number of hurricanes = 6

Number of major hurricanes = 2
Both major hurricanes were Category 5

The average for these numbers since 1950, are

Number of named storms =9.6

Number of hurricanes = 5.9

Number of major hurricanes 2.3

If you ask me the numbers were pretty close. The the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were only one each outside of prediction. To me, given the tremendous uncertainty, the forecast was good.

The media hype has a lot to do about the perception in long range forecasts. I would not be surprised to see the evening news dwell to great lengths on the fact that the season was not up to expectations even though one additional hurricane could have put the seasonal forecast on the money.

And yes, there was one hurricane that came ashore on the Texas coast....Show more

Weather is notoriously difficult to predict.

There were some conditions that developed this year that increased upper-level atmospheric winds. These winds, called "shear" in the hurricane prediction business, slow down tropical storms' ability to grow and can often prevent a storm from becoming very intense.

There are many variables in storm generation. Ocean temperatures and wind shear seem to be two of the most important.

It is entirely possible we could have 20 or more named storms next year. It is also possible we might only have five. The only thing that seems certain is that we are in a period of time where well-above-average counts are far more likely in any given year....Show more

Since hurricane Katrina and Al Gore's scaring every liberal arts major into believing that something called Global Warming would cause a devastating increase in the number of Atlantic Ocean hurricanes (last year 19 were first predicted and over 22 in 2006), the liberal arts media has tried without success to convince its listeners that Almighty Al is right. They were wrong and you will never hear them REPORT THAT FACT!...Show more