How many years does a cooling trend need to be before you believe Global Warming has stopped?
2008-10-24T15:30:03Z
gcnp58 - I've never not stated there wasn't a warming trend. I just don't believe the theory that CO2 is the driving force behind the warming that happened at the end of the little ice age. And when you dig deep enough you can see a better correlation to sun spot activity. There is also a correlation to what the PDO which is not the same as El Nino and El Nina years, because it has a 20 to 50 year cycle and we have just entered a cold cycle for the PDO.
2008-10-24T15:34:12Z
Stray Cat - I think you are a bit confused, since this all about global temperature trends and always has been.
2008-10-24T15:37:32Z
Dana - It's nice to know you have something to go by for how you'll know if the temperature is decreasing enough to know it's not warming anymore.
2008-10-24T15:39:44Z
gcnp58 - I'm surprised that you say 40 years, will you still be alive then? I'll be in my eighties if I'm still alive in 40 years.
Dr Jello2008-10-24T11:51:29Z
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The Scientific consensus for determining a trend would be increasing average temperatures over a 5 year period. However this has changed because "global warming" is more political than scientific.
We're going to have to see a greater depth of cold where even the most ardent believer of "global warming" is not able to refute the evidence that it is cooling.
I could be wrong but I feel climate change is something that has been going on since the dawn of time. nothing new. I also have a theory that just like water is a constant(same amount in varying forms always) so too are the elements(in their varying forms). In that there is no such thing as reduction but there is the possibility of conversion. So - although all the talk is about global warming - I feel this is a perpetuated fallacy. Quite possibly in a few hundred years we would be talking about the extremes cold snap. Earth moves, as such a slight changes in positioning would account for weather changes - some areas are actually cooler than they were where others are warmer - this says to me we have moved on our axis. As to holes in the ozone layer - we didn't know they were there until we found them! Perhaps they were always there! Some sort of release value maybe? I don't believe there is a correlation with the sunspot activity either.
There has been a lot of confusion about this recently, largely because of scientific studies being misreported.
Climate models until more recently have not shown short term climatic fluctuations, such as La Niña, El Niño and Sun spot cycles. The reason being you need to model long term factors before this data can be input.
This is a graph from a model where pacific decadal oscillations (lasting anomalies in pacific surface temprature*) have been taken into account, the green line shows the forecast made by combining this data, the black line shows the forecast without PDOs being taken into account. The purple line labled 'stabilization' models a climate where CO2 does not advance beyond its 2000 level.
This graph predicts some offsetting of the man-made contribution to the greenhouse effect for a couple of years. It does not predict that the warming trend will not continue or that it will be less severe then previously anticipated.
Re, sun spots, PDO comment, what i have tried to show you is why you get a better correlation to actual temperature pattern when these trends are taken into acount, * i also mentioned La Niña and El Niño specifically because we have been experiencing a particually strong La Niña recently which some skeptics are parading as evidence of a cooling trend.
Sun spots don't offer a good explaination of warming over the past 3 decades, where is the evidence to show a correlation between sunspots the recent warming trend?
If an explaination that didn't involving an advancing greenhouse effect proved to be a better explaination of temperature changes i would except that as evidence man made greenhouse gas emmisions are not effecting the climate.
When you said “before you believe”, are you referring to the population in general?
I mean, let’s face it, as long as the mainstream media covers up the truth, the majority will never believe Global Warming is gone. The media will keep saying this cooling trend is just a different manifestation of global warming and they’ll try to hold on to that as long as they can.
There will be a time when the cooling is so obvious that they won’t be able to continue with the cover up or they’ll risk loosing total credibility from its followers (a.k.a. the majority of the population). That time can be in a couple of years or even earlier if we experience some kind of extraordinary event.
The mainstream media already lost credibility among some people, being myself one of them, but it’s just a minority, for now.
I telecommute rather some the time. Have a hybrid vehicle. CFL bulbs everywhere in the abode. decreased length of backyard to shrink mowing (have very large lot that was once mowed often). decreased thermostat settings (positioned on greater beneficial layer of clothing) and have it timed to shrink pointless heating. do not use air-conditioning in summer season. Recycle. working with an inventor who has patented a gadget to noticeably shrink heating capacity waste in older place of living homes making use of correct boilers.