I think there is a good chance of the Sea Ice extent surpassing the 1979-2000 mean, but it will probably take a few more years to go beyond 1979 levels. The rapid changes that have occurred in the Arctic sea ice coverage over the last two years however are very anomalous and are apparently associated with changing ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, perhaps a direct result of the PDO phase change and or changes in the AMO, so anything is possible.
There are early signs of a rapid recovery of Arctic sea ice:
" High retention of first-year ice
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the 2008 melt season was the higher-than-average retention of first-year sea ice (see earlier entries, including April 7). Relatively thin first-year ice is more prone to melting out completely than older, thicker ice. However, more of this year’s first-year ice survived the melt season than is typical. Sea ice age maps from Sheldon Drobot, our colleague at the University of Colorado at Boulder, show that much more first-year ice survived in 2008 than in 2007. This is one of the reasons that 2008 did not break last year's record-low minimum. "
We can all guess, but it is arrogant to predict, knowing there are so many variables involved.
In the 2nd linked you cited (NSIDC), the grey curve in the chart shows the average Arctic sea ice extent between 1979 and 2000, which is different than the 1979 sea ice extent.
I plotted a chart using the data NSIDC provides, it seems to match with the one you posted, though values from last 2 months weren't there so I couldn't validate the last part of the 2008 blue curve.
Assuming those values are right and weren't made up, it might, just might seem like it will not reach the avg 1979-2000 by Nov-30 but perhaps it'd be close. That's JUST only a guess.
They gave 2008 and a 50/50 chance of being lower then last year. What does that say about using common sense? It's a extremely volatile area that's difficult to model or predict, based on wind and atmospheric conditions. If they use decade trends no it won't happen, but remember the predictions saying the Arctic would be ice free for 2008.
How soon everyone forgets. It looks like they could miss another prediction. And seems more of a guessing game then fact.
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