Climate Change for a Speculative Fiction Novel?

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Hi Mikira,

Your question hinges on the plausibility of an ice-age type scenario resulting from the Sun entering a dormant state. You asked if this scenario was somewhat plausible.

From a scientific perspective then I’m afraid to say that it’s not at all possible. The Sun is effectively an immense nuclear reaction, once started it can’t be stopped and continues with little variability.

For the 4.567 billion years that Earth has been around there is no evidence that the Sun has ever caused climatic changes of more than about 1°C.

Events such as the Sporer, Dalton and Maunder Minima and the Medieval Warm Period were exacerbated by changes in solar output but in all cases by only a fraction of one degree.

Temperature changes of a significant magnitude are caused by changes in the orbits of Earth around the Sun and the solar system around the galactic centre.

However, if you’re writing a novel does it need to be plausible? For example, The Day After Tomorrow is based around the onset of an almost instant ice-age and this isn’t something that could ever possibly happen. In the movie the rate of cooling could only possibly be achieved if the Sun stopped burning and the Earth lost it’s atmosphere in the same instant.

One concept that most people aren’t really aware of is that the amount of heat contained within the climatic systems can only ever change very slowly. As a consequence, when one part of the world is hot then another will be cold. Which is precisely what we’re seeing now. The heatwaves in parts of the US and Europe are tempered by the rapid cooling in the Arctic whereas 6 months ago when we had very cold weather there were deadly heatwaves in Australia.

Any rapid cooling would need to be brought about by an event of massive proportions, something so large that it would inevitably be an extinction level event. Possibilities include an all out nuclear exchange, a supervolcano or megacaldera (a VEI scale 8 eruption), a massive meteor impact or other event that would throw up sufficient material into the atmosphere to block out the Sun.

In the aftermath of such an event there would be rapid cooling and a state of full glaciation would be achieved in 4 to 5 years.

Whatever scenario you choose for your novel, you’ll need to include a certain amount of creative license and dispense with scientific accuracy. Not that I see any problem with this, it is, after all, a work of fiction that you’re intending to produce.

PS – I have to ask why you don’t consider the Milankovitch Cycles to be an established fact. They are after all, nothing more than variations of the same phenomena that give us the days, seasons and years....Show more

I don't think you'll have any problem convincing them that the Indian Ocean could be iced over after 200 years of a dim sun. Don't forget that most people believed Day After Tomorrow when they saw it.

If I were you, I would still try to make the science sound as accurate as possible though. Not to the level that an expert in climatology would agree, but enough that someone with at least basic math and science skills can understand and accept it. Take Crichton as an inspiration. His stories are mostly completely implausible, like Timeline, but they have just enough explanation behind them that most people accept them and move on with the story.

And I would definitely use my imagination for the effects of a dim sun, don't just stop with temperature. What might happen to human health without enough UV light to synthesize vitamin D? If photosynthesis is reduced, might a certain plant have an advantage and end up dominating the land? What if, by the year 2200, the electricity grid is almost fully solar. How might a dim sun affect that?

Again, these don't need to be strictly accurate ideas, just creative and plausible enough that someone with no real knowledge of the subject might think that they *could* be true.

And, on a side note, if your sense of humor is of the type that you "love" that kind of over the top and lazy sarcasm from man bear pig, then I'd suggest you don't put too much expectation on the humor in your book....Show more

Well I'll ignore the Milankovitch comment because I think it's rather silly, but it's irrelevant to your question anyway.

Certainly it would be entirely plausible for the Sun to enter another Maunder Minimum-like phase sometime in the future.

I'm not familiar with the term 'Indeo-Pacific' - do you mean the Indian and Pacific Oceans? If so, I would find it totally implausible for a Maunder Minimum to freeze these oceans.

If you want to create a realistic scenario with cold temperatures, I would also set the story sometime in the future when humans have already solved the AGW problem. Maybe 2100-2200....Show more

You might have richer plot opportunities if, rather than a solar minimum, the crisis is created by a halt to ocean currents that transport heat. Then rather than ice everywhere, we'd have freezing cold in the Northeast US and Northern Europe and intense heat in the tropics. Different parts of the world would have different problems. Your storyline could then have strong political elements as economic power is rapidly changed. It's just an idea, and I have no idea whether it is more or less plausible than a long-term solar minimum. But I think it could be more interesting while not being as scary and hopeless as the Ice-world theme....Show more

I think you could write a really interesting story, with stuff a lot less dramatic than that. Imagine, for example Hollywood celebrities regularly shoveling snow because they helped ban snow blowers in LA. Such a dramatic change in the way things are would require massive infrastructure re-working, Less food for the world and a host of other significant problems.

That's a long way from frozen oceans, but still an interesting climate change topic....Show more