Early sunrise in Greenland. Is the explanation of scientist attributing it to global warming wrong?

Ilulissat is Greenland's westernmost outpost and it is above the arctic circle (69° N). This year sunrise occurred on January 11, two days ahead of normal.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1346936/The-sun-rises-days-early-Greenland-sparking-fears-climate-change-accelerating.html
One of the scientist who was interviewed for the article said that "by far the most obvious explanation the early sunrise" was the melting icecap which lowered the optical horizon.

I have a strong suspicion that answer is wrong.

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To solve this, you should google earth Ilulissat, Greenland.

You might also need to know something about physics and topography. It would also helps to know a little bit about the arctic and sea ice, but that is not necessary.

An additional hint, is that the first rays of the sun would not necessarily be observed from the center of town since it has small hills to the south.

2011-01-17T20:19:05Z

P.S. I am not a skeptic, but I tend to be skeptical. I dare any skeptics to give me a good explanation. Show that you have the chops to think something out instead of cutting a pasting from trash website

Oh, this is inspired by this question: http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=As2e4N2B6XSFZhF4GL81kWo8.Bd.;_ylv=3?qid=20110117104352AAwIPcK

2011-01-17T20:56:25Z

My, I really should proof read. To many little typos.

Shakira, you gotta thumb's up from me.

2011-01-17T21:15:54Z

Rio, regarding uplift of western greenland as a result of the rebound from losing ice sheets, I think this is what you are looking for: http://climateprogress.org/2010/05/27/energy-and-global-warming-news-for-may-27-greenlands-uplift-is-evidence-of-rapid-ice-loss-nations-largest-concentrated-pv-project-opens-western-u-s-grid-can-handle-more-renewables/

However, if it were applicable, it would delay sunrise not make it earlier.

2011-01-18T10:43:23Z

So far TU's for

Shakira
Rio
jyushchyshyn
d/dx + d/dy ...
Dent
Scythian
Peter J

No TDs from this camp

2011-01-19T15:31:59Z

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Some good theories:
1. Anything from the Dailymail can't be trusted (TU for LGR, too),
2. Anything with a headline "sparking fear" should not be taken seriously,
3. It is most likely an atmospheric phenomena,
4. It really couldn't be a change in the ice cap because that change would be huge and otherwise noticed.

At least in my mind, all of these theories are correct!

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My own analysis is:

1. First tip off is the article says that Ilulissat is the westernmost town in Greenland. That creates a presumption that it has a fairly clear view to the south (and the peak height of the sun's path is due south).

2. In fact the town itself faces west and the view to the south is not visible from the town proper. But a very short walk to the top of the hills surrounding the town gives you a good south view. It would have an elevation of about 100ft and overlooks the Ilulissat Icefiord. But this is just sea ice with a few bergs and won't effect t

d/dx+d/dy+d/dz2011-01-17T23:05:10Z

Favorite Answer

The early sunrise could be an atmospheric effect. The atmosphere is essentially a gradient index lens. The important feature to remember about a gradient index system is that light bends toward the higher index. The physics is the same as a fiber optic, but the scale is a bit bigger. The refractive index of air is a function of the temperature and pressure, and composition. The refractive index decreases as air warms and also with increasing humidity. If there is a mass of warm, moist air (relative to prior years) near the ground over regions to the south the conditions are right for a mirage. The sunrise further south is seen because there is an inversion in the refractive index with low index near ground level and higher index at elevation. Further, the refractive index is wavelength dependent with higher refraction at shorter wavelengths. An over the horizon sunrise would appear green because the red end of the spectrum is not refracted enough and the blue end is of the spectrum is lost to Rayleigh scattering.

Edit: Rio, the refraction effect that I refer to is from water vapor that has not condensed into droplets. If the water droplets (in liquid or ice form) are present a diffraction effect (rainbow) is also possible. Although isostatic rebound is probably not the right answer, it is a good and constructive answer because your hypothesis is a known physical phenomenon and it is possible to test the hypothesis against the evidence to either accept or reject the hypothesis. Science destroys far more hypotheses than it accepts. My hypothesis can be tested by analyzing photographs of the phenomenon for an change in the spectral distribution of the sunlight.

Anonymous2011-01-18T14:33:15Z

I have spent a lot of time in the mountains. The sunrise is about an hour later on the West face of the Rockies, like in Grand Junction, CO. The Rockies are a helluva lot taller than an ice sheet in the Artic circle, of this I am confident. Though not as wide as an ice sheet..

But I find it hard to believe that just suddenly, for the first time ever, the sunrise is two days early. According to you people, the ice sheet has been in continuous meltdown for 120 years. The sunrise would be creeping forward by minutes per year, not just two days out of the blue. The isostatic rebound would be the same thing, a slow process.

If the rafting ice over the ocean had been undermined by warmer currents, there would have been a tsunami to wash away Greenland, when the shelf collapsed. For that much ice to fall that rapidly...somebody, some satellite, some seismic meter, somewhere would have noticed a few thousand miles, and millions of tons, of ice just suddenly dropping a few hundred feet.

This story pegs my BS meter.

Scythian19502011-01-18T14:49:16Z

It took a little effort to locate Illulissat in Google Earth, and you're right, there's hills and a fjord, and more hilly terrain before part of the icecap appears---like at least 50 miles away. As I said in my answer to the referenced question, there's a lot of imprecision about the point of observation. However, it is still possible to "notice" that the sun has come up early. Let's say that you're a native of Illulissat, and you're in the habit of going to a coffee shop, and the front of it is in perpetual darkness until, say, Jan 13. But this year it's lit up on Jan 11. It's possible to notice those kinds of things fairly unambiguously that doesn't depend on subjective interpretation. After all, it's these kinds of observations that led ancient people to erect monuments to mark off astronomical events of the year.

If there is really an solid icecap "horizon" responsible for determining when this event occurs for Ilulissat, and it's 50 miles away, then instead of about 30 feet of ice melted down being responsible for 2-days early appearance of the sun, there would have to be more in the order of 500 feet of ice melted down. A virtual collapse of the local icecap. While nothing concrete can really be said for this story without more details, I wouldn't discount natives of Ilulissat reporting an early sun. If they say it seems awfully early for the sun to appear, I would give them some credence, because, after all, they live there.

Rio2011-01-18T04:38:55Z

Didn't have to do any research. Landmass can rebound, though I've forgotten the technical term. Nor did I bother to google llulissat, so I could be wrong.

Edit: Ok wrong direction, should have looked. d/dx is right about refraction and clouds offsetting the curvature. One exception the clouds should be high altitude for flatting.

But thanks for the link.

Anonymous2011-01-18T17:14:32Z

Never take seriously an article that uses the phrase "sparking fears" in the headline.

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