How long before deniers cherry-pick the middle troposphere to claim “No warming in X years”?
2015 clearly has the warmest surface and ocean temperatures on record, for both raw and corrected data. Given the delay for the El Nino heat to spread toward the poles and up to 5 miles into the air, record temperatures for the lower troposphere are probably only months away.
Now above the troposphere, the stratosphere has been cooling, as predicted by the AGW climate models. So interpolating between the warming lower troposphere and the cooling stratosphere I expect a layer with little if any warming
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Yeah, that’s it. The middle troposphere must be pretty stable.
So to claim “No warming in X years”, how long before deniers cherry-pick data for the middle troposphere?
For the error of satellites vs thermometers see this:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Satellit...
The error bars on the satellites is over 3 times the size of the bars for the surface temps.
As for the extent of the corrections, Figure 2 (second panel) in Karl et al shows global land/ocean raw vs. adjusted: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/06/noaa-temperature-record-updates-and-the-hiatus/
In summary, the correction are very small (UHI included), and overall the raw data for the globe shows even MORE warming than the corrected data. I have seen so estimate for the globe much different from the NOAA data: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us
Actually, Christy is using the middle troposphere already, at a Senate "hearing".