What are my chances??

My last men. cycle was 12/7/2008.... Considering a normal 28 cycle and ovulation by chance occurring on the 14th day I was supposed to ovulate on the 21st! Like most of you I am very anxious to conceive so I have sort of a pregnancy mentor that is helping me achieve my goal I would say... I was informed to test the cm on the dates of the 18-23 just in case i ovulated earlier than expected. I know what I am about to say is allot of information but i think no one can give a usable opinion without the full story. So me and my hubby started on the 18th and we had sex about x3 that day, the again x1 on the 19, 20, 21 and we skipped the 22 and then again x1 on the 23rd. I tested the cm on the 19th and it was as it needed to be..... But when I tested it on the 22nd it had gone back to the dry state. Now to my question what are the odds that I had conceived this month considering the information given?

Also, if i'm not mistaking wouldn't i be able to take a home test on the 2nd of January if i receive no cycle???