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Ken
Lv 5
Ken asked in EnvironmentGlobal Warming · 1 decade ago

Does Record Heat in Anchorage prove/disprove AGW?

There's a little heat-wave that's been occurring in Anchorage, Alaska. Those people that love to post questions about how cold weather in their city "proves global warming is false", seem to have missed this.

Here's a quote about it from NOAA:

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/pubfcst.php?fcst=NOAK48PA...

AN IMPRESSIVE RECORD HIGH WAS SET ON FRIDAY, JANUARY 16...WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 50 DEGREES. THIS SHATTERED THE OLD RECORD HIGH OF 44 SET IN 1992 AND 1926. THIS NEW RECORD TIES FOR THE SECOND HIGHEST OFFICIAL JANUARY TEMPERATURE...AND ONLY THE FOURTH TIME THE MUNICIPALITY HAS HIT 50 DEGREES IN JANUARY SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN.

Does this prove, disprove, or have no bearing on the validity of the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming?

Update:

Dave H - Are you kidding? The trend-line of the GISS data you linked too shows a 2C warming over that period. And a running 20-year average shows a 1.5C warming.

Update 2:

East-Wes wrote: "You're comparing a few data points in select locations to dozens of locations over several months."

So you think "several months" and "dozens" of data points are enough to determine climate trends?

Climate is defined as the average of weather over a 30 year period. Which is why none of the ludicrous posts around here about how cold it is in Minnesota or Florida have any bearing on the validity of AGW.

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  • 1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    Three data points is probably not much ground to make a link but if the first gap is 1926-1992 (66 years) and the second gap is 1992-2009 (17 years) it suggests something is going on over a reasonable length of time.

    And while it may be cold in the parts of the U.S. and Canada the Global temp averages (including Alaska) for 2008 tell a different story

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008...

    And for bravozulu benefit given his socialists conspiracy theories I don't think anything can be drawn from the fact they used red dots!

  • ?
    Lv 4
    5 years ago

    while the tree falls interior the woodland it makes a noise. If i'm no longer there i do no longer hear the noise. I say if i'm no longer conscious and have faith in easy terms one area of a narrative i'm nonetheless no longer there. right it is an commentary from my years in Charleston, SC I used to scrub the airborne dirt and dust from my living house each and every 3 days. Over a era or 8 years the airborne dirt and dust went from easy gray to darkish gray to black. Gee i contemplate whether that became pollution? what's all that haze doing interior the mountains of Virginia now? It became no longer there 12 years in the past. it rather is now. effortless sense with commentary and coaching presented by potential of many respected web content on the information superhighway let us know we are in hassle. we could be idiots to overlook approximately lots evidence. it isn't any longer "fowl little" time. Why are exploring different planets? definite climate has cycles. The cycles are changing and rushing up. The evidence is cutting-edge in our on a daily basis lives.

  • 1 decade ago

    It neither proves nor disproves the theory. The weather in Anchorage Alaska is just that: weather. It might be unusual, but there's no way to know whether a single weather event would have occurred with or without a warming climate.

  • Rio
    Lv 6
    1 decade ago

    You already know that at some point, weather and regional climate will be used cumulatively to represent a global means. The funny thing about weather reports they don't emphasize CO2 levels. They could if it was pertinent, but in d-d weather the extreme variability would make it pointless. So the answer is (no)... "It's a rather strange feeling telling someone, what they already knew."

    http://www.alaskascienceoutreach.com/index.php/sci...

    http://www.arh.noaa.gov/rnotes/RN-05-0002.pdf

  • 1 decade ago

    It neither proves or disproves it. Temperatures fluctuate naturally depending on cloud cover weather systems etc.

    I don't believe we have seen any major global warming yet. In fact for the last 6 years the global averages have not risen.

    The earth's climate fluctuates dramatically. There has been a steady cycle of "ice ages". According to some scientists we are due for another little ice age. the last one occured only a short period ago. It was preceded directly by a period of global warming known as the Medieval warm period.

    I'm not going to discredit man made global warming completely, but I believe if it is occurring at all it is on a much smaller scale than the liberal elite would have us believe.

  • It's not enough evidence to either prove or disprove global warming. I'm sure either side could use it as ammo though.

  • 1 decade ago

    I had a friend north of there that had been complaining about all the sub zero weather. Then a front came through with 105 mile an hour gusts and like a Santa Ana wind compressed down and that is where the high temperatures came from. It is more the fact that the temperature has not risen in the last ten years as CO2 rose that proves that CO2 isn't the main driving force of climate. The theory has yet to be validated by actual data like warmer air in the troposphere. The actual warming is apparently not significant nor does it require the socialists to take over the economy.

  • 1 decade ago

    Good one, Dana. The article also says "but he says a cool change is expected for the weekend." in Australia. Which very well could bring it to average or below. So January could very well NOT be the hottest to date.

  • DaveH
    Lv 5
    1 decade ago

    Anchorage has a very good, long and accessible temperature record, from 1916 to date.

    It’s here

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_...

    It looks like things are neither unusually warm nor getting warmer according to GISS.

  • 1 decade ago

    Except that there are record or near-record lows in most of the continental US, and it's been cool in the continental US for months - thus, Alaska would be the exception, not the rule.

    The problem is, you're likening two arguments that are not the same. You're comparing a few data points in select locations to dozens of locations over several months.

    http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_Lows_2008.htm

    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080313_...

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