Predictions for 2010 U.S. senate/congressional elections?

I expect the Republicans to pick up between 3 and 6 seats in the Senate, and many (at least 25) seats in the House. The Republicans might take the House, but it is exceptionally unlikely they will take the Senate.

There are more vacant Republican Senate seats than vacant Democratic Senate seats in 2010 but: (1) most of the vacant Republican seats are in relatively safe Republican states or the likely Republican candidates are very popular and leading in the polls, and (2) several Democratic incumbents will face tough races.

Of the vacant Republican seats, the only ones in danger of switching are Ohio and New Hampshire. New Hampshire will be tight, but Rob Portman (the likely Republican nominee) is currently leading in all polls in Ohio.

A number of Democratic incumbents are in trouble. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota are in deep trouble and will probably lose to Republican challengers. Harry Reid of Nevada is behind by more than 10 points to his likely Republican challenger. Chris Dodd of Connecticut has been facing ethical problems and is behind in some polls. Michael Bennett of Colorado is also running behind in a number of polls. Arlen Spector (former Republican) is running even in the polls with his likely Republican challenger -- running even with a challenger is always bad news for an incumbent, because undecideds tend to break 2:1 in favor of a challenger. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York is running about even with Pataki (her likely opponent), again bad news for the incumbent. Even Barbara Boxer of California is facing a tough race from Carly Fiorina, a moderate and well-financed Republican. The Democratic incumbents will win in some of these races, but not most of them.

The Democratic majority in the House depends on a number of new members representing swing districts. More than 35 House Democrats represent districts that voted for McCain in the last Presidential election. The Republicans are targeting those seats and will probably win most of them. The Republicans will probably not retake the House, although that is a possibility. However, they will likely pick up at least 25 seats and make the House very close.

1. Unemployment dropped because of the Holiday hiring. I predict the Unemployment will jump in Jan to 11%

2. The Dems will get the Healthcare Bill passed

3 Just like the last Republican sweep of Congress the Dems will lose and maybe some of the Republicans. The TEA Party has expressed the disconnect of Washington and "the People" you will see virtually unknowns being elected and Probably more independents.

4 You will see more Democrats defecting to the Republican side.

5 We will see a very confused Washington wondering what in the world happened. The voters will have their say and forever change DC. It will no longer be solely Dem or Rep. Many more Independents.

I agree with your assessment and I feel that much would depend on what is happening in the US at that time if people are happy less unemployment,, withdrawal from Afghanistan less foreclosures and acceptance of the health reform act the Democrats could stay even or pick up a few seats. .

If the opposite happens the Democrats would lose a few seats but maintain control but by very narrow margin in both houses. Historically the Party in power has lost seats in a mid term election, so we have to watch and wait

I think we will see some of the Democrats leave the Senate and an awful lot of Democrats leave the House. Unless they give the Independent voters (like me) a reason to keep them in power, they are out...simple as that. I doubt if the economy is going to improve any time soon. In fact, I think we are going to see at least another small dip in the stock and credit markets. I think the newest taxes that will get put on businesses along with the prospect of eventually having to cover all their employees for health issues is not going to allow most businesses to start rehiring...even if the people did start buying more. The people themselves have had a taste of what it is like to be afraid, and I don't think they will go back to risky debt quickly...although I do think people will eventually go back to spending more than they earn...i.e. using credit. Our economy is totally based on consumerism...ie spending more than we make...Right now, even those who are not considered unemployed are not ready to start spending again. The policies of this administration have been far to drastic and uncertain which causes both our citizens and businesses to hesitate when it comes to spending. Personally, I do not expect to see Pres. Obama run for re-election in 2012.

Obviously he is right ... the democrats will control the congressional elections for many years until . . . maybe . . . a republican president wins over a democrat.

I think you are correct. It will all be about the economy and jobs.

response to "American Woman"..............

hiring usually slows during winter months.