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Odds of an ace on the flop through river?
In normal Texas Hold 'Em poker, imagine you have a pair of Kings.
What are the odds that an ace will appear either on the flop, turn, or river? (just the sum of the odds is fine)
Second part to question: if I lost on KK to an ace on the board 18 out of the 20 times in which I last had this pair, what are the odds of this happening?
1 Answer
- Divide By ZeroLv 77 years agoFavorite Answer
1 - (46C5)/(50C5) = 2323 / 6580
The chance of it coming 18 or more times out of 20
= C(20,2) * (2323/6580)^18 * (4257/6580)^2
+ 20 * (2323/6580)^19 * 4257/6580
+ (2323/6580)^20
= approx. 1 in 1,635,957
But you didn't just say it came up 18 out of 20 times, you said you also lost to it (presumably lost at showdown to someone with Ax in their hand). So do you want to factor in the chance of your opponent having an ace? Or maybe KK vs Ax matchups and how often the ace should come then?