Can anyone predict whether the heat content of the Earth's climate system will be up or down in 5 years?

Question

It seems to me that heat content is a better measure of what the climate system might be doing than a global air temperature. And that global warming is better demonstrated by heat content than air temps. Further, satellite measurements indicate that the Earth is adding heat consistently, year after year, despite temperature fluctuations. Therefore, given the basic physics of the situation, I predict that the heat content will still be going up in 5 years. And I believe it would take something drastic to make my prediction wrong, like massive amounts of light-reflecting aerosols injected into the atmosphere, or a noticeable drop in the solar constant.

So how about it? Who wants to predict heat content is up in 5 years, and who wants to predict heat content is down in 5 years?

gcnp58 · Accepted Answer

It will be up, but the climate skeptics will claim the measurements are faulty.  Just like they do now.

Kano · Answer

Of course heat content is a better way to measure Earths climate, but I am not sure we can do that, we are struggling to accurately measure Earths land and atmosphere heat, so to know Earths heat content we have to measure the heat content of water as well, water contains huge quantities of heat (4x more than air) it also can vary in heat over relatively smal areas, any scuba or snorkel diver will tell hitting pockets of warm or cold water is quite common, and seeing that water covers 70% of our planet, with an average depth of 3km and 11km at the Marianas trench, it will take more than a few thousand measurements to have any basic idea.

Hey Dook · Answer

20+ year perturbations can dominant century long climate trends, so predicting 5 years in advance is not something scientists do. Deniers pretend otherwise but there is no reason to entertain them. Anyone can make a guess, and meteorologists can make better educated guesses. Satellite measurements of heat content may be an exception: I would like to see a citation or link before buying into it though.

Bruce · Answer

Yes to Alph: "Need to define system. The planet will have more heat, that includes oceans, land and atmosphere."
The Sun may be cooler, but not enough to offset the CO2.

Dr Jello · Answer

Any prediction is only going to be as accurate as a flip of a coin.  Science isn't about "predictions", that's the realm of soothsayers, mystics, and charlatans.

? · Answer

Need to define system. The planet will have more heat, that includes oceans, land and atmosphere.

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Can anyone predict whether the heat content of the Earth's climate system will be up or down in 5 years?

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