What happens when 2014 becomes the hottest year in the record? How will deniers spin this fact?

Deniers are remarkable for their inability to understand even the things that they obsess on. For years we have suffered through their daily presentations of 15-year long – then 16- and 17-year long – and now 18-year long graphs of temperature that are not scientific evidence of any pause in or falsification of global warming because those data do not contain that information and there is nothing anyone can do to squeeze that information out of them.

Every statistical test of the linear trend fails to separate it from normal variability. That is part a function of sample size and part a result of the fact that the test variables are not stationary. You do not need a course in statistics to see that mean annual temperatures for the last 18 years are all skewed toward – or exceed – the upper end of the distribution curve – and that suggests a big fcking problem. It means that (1) something is still pushing annual mean global temperature upward and (2) the clustering of the temperature values at one end of the distribution is limiting our explanation of the variance which has to led to the hypothesis that additional heat is being stored somewhere else in the system.

If correct, it means that temperature will eventually take a significant turn upward – and when that begins to happen, it will look something like this:

>>Seven years later, 2005 was hotter. Five years after that, 2010 became the hottest. Now, four years later, 2014 has passed 2010.<<

Now or later, the implication is that global warming is happening faster than we expected and we should be more – not less – concerned.

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Raisin Caine ----

>> Where can the "heat go"??? Eitehr you are not accounting for all of the heat being lost to space, in which case, it is not going to cause problems later on. OR you are not accounting for all the energy the OCEANS are sucking up. <<

It could be volcanoes, atmospheric water vapor, aerosols, the sun, ENSO, AMO, or PDO --- but it is not:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.47...

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n3/abs/ngeo2...

http://web.science.unsw.edu.au/~matthew/Maher_et_a...

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.503...

OR – it could be the oceans and radiation balance physics (which show large forcing) ---- and it is

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n7/full/...

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-...

http://www.ocean-sci.net/7/783/2011/os-7-783-2011....

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n10/full/nge...

And, yes, it most definitely will jump up and bite our as-.

How much hotter? 0.01 degrees??? Why if we keep increasing 0.01 degrees every 4 to 5 years, the earth is going to burn up in ... ohhh... about a million years.

I have frequently said that the temp of the Earth is increasing, but we have NO reason to assume it is going to increase in an exponential-like manner. BTW, some dataset still have 1998 as the hottest year. Indeed, the ones that have not been "corrected". And their "corrections" were to make the earlier years colder and the later years warmer.

Bottom line is this. You can barely show any warming at all. This is NOT what you have to show to justify your multi-trillion dollar "solutions". You need to show the exponential warming promised in your models to justify such expenditures. WHY??? Because you need to understand the consequences of your solutions.

4 million people a year die of respiratory problems from heating their hovels with dung. Thats 4 million people a year dying due to lack of electricity. Now YOU have not shown that even ONE person will die from AGW.

Instead, you pull scare-mongering idiocy to justify things like the World Bank NOT giving loans to third world countries to build coal power plants. THAT CAUSES DEATHS!!!!! YOUR SCARE-MONGERING IS CAUSING DEATHS!!!

All the while you act as if you have shown your case because by SOME measures 2014 is 0.01 degrees warmer than 2010. YOU HAVE NOT!!!

You want to talk about SMART ways of reducing CO2 emissions that DO NOT CAUSE SUFFERING, then have at it. I will fully support those measures. BUT I will NOT support your scare-mongering methods of PUSHING a Machiavellian agenda based upon 2014 being 0.01 degrees warmer.

Propose solutions that will NOT cause suffering and STOP EXAGGERATING AND LYING!!!

Gary F,

COME ON. Use your brain. The heat is not just hiding somewhere like some rascally nymph that going to bite you on the bottom when you are not looking. Lets use jsut a bit of common sense here. Where can the "heat go"??? Eitehr you are not accounting for all of the heat being lost to space, in which case, it is not going to cause problems later on. OR you are not accounting for all the energy the OCEANS are sucking up.

The oceans are vast and hold a LOTTTTTTTT of energy. Once again the fear you discuss are irrational.

What worries me is that climate "scientists" like yourself KNOW your models are not accurate, KNOW you are "missing heat", KNOW the variability is high, but you TALK like you do.

What are you even talking about??? DO you know? Heat is hiding somewhere in the system and will come back to bite us??? Seriously??? Is this science to you??? I don't even call that thougth process educated guessing. Sounds to me like the data is telling you that AGW is not as bad as you initially predicted, but you don't want to stop the gravy train quite yet.

What's to spin? 2015 is already declared the hottest year on record, and the year just started.

Initially, I think that many will claim the data was 'adjusted'. Then, assuming 2015 isn't even warmer, they will say that a new cooling trend has started. Regardless, they'll say the scam goes on.

That is land and ocean temperatures combined, it still only amounts to 0.8C since 1891 an insignificant amount.

For land and atmosphere temperatures 1998 is till the warmest

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/01...

Not where I live, it was no where near the warmest year on record

Even if climate change is happening the fact is man did not cause it and man can not stop it

The global warming hypothesis is not that adding more co2 in the atmosphere will cause a rise in temperatures, but rather a significant rise in temperatures. Breaking records by hundreds of one degree does not prove your hypothesis. BTW satellite data will not show a record warm year, not even close.

2014 ends up being only 1/2 degree above average. Even an extremist has to agree that will make no change. But then they are liberals and facts mean nothing to them.

So what. The trend from peak to peak since 1998 will be less than one C per century. And that is after one sixth of a century.

We are not deniers! It was also the coldest year! I felt like I can make ice cream.

The Global Warming Scam is nothing more than a pretentious gimmick. You are a tool.....