What is the filly Rags to Riches worth today?

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Top broodmare prospect Ashado (champion racemare and some decent black type close up in the family) went for a record $9 million. "Rags" has better credentials than Ashado, family-wise; she's half-sister to another Belmont winner, and her second dam, Blush With Pride, is also second dam to Epsom Oaks second and Irish Oaks winner Peeping Fawn, so the family is hot right now. I think that if "Rags" went on the market, she might bring as much as $15 million, possibly $20 million.

There are two factors that limit how much a mare is going to sell for: first, she can only have a maximum of one foal a year, most likely less since it's rare for a mare to be able to produce a foal a year, year-in and year out. And fertility in mares falls off quickly after they reach age 16-17, so it would be unlikely for a mare to have more than 10 foals. That effectively limits the amount of revenue that a mare can generate from sale of her progeny.

Second, and this is the most important factor: there are only a few entities in the world that can afford to buy a mare for $10,000,000 or more. The Maktoums, Coolmore, Niarkos family, a few other Arabs, and you're pretty much done, as far as who can afford a broodmare of that value.

Since "Rags" is already owned by a member of the Coolmore Mafia, that removes them from the bidding side if she was sold. That leaves the Arabs. If they aren't going to bid against each other, and they usually don't, that will keep the bidding down. It takes two bidders to get the price up.

(PS-- I gotta disagree with Greyt-mom about European interest in this family. Since since Peeping Fawn is doing so well in the English/Irish classics this year, I think there would be a great deal of interest in "Rags" from Europe. Peeping Fawn is out of a half sister to Better Than Honour. It's a great family with a lot of international connections.)...Show more

Probably around $5-7million. As mentioned above, if she went through a public auction the two biggest spenders (Coolmore and the Maktoums) would not bid. Coolmore because they own her and the Maktoums because they don't bid on Coolmore stock. Aside from the big two there are only a handful of individuals and conglomerates that have the pockets to invest in a mare. And of course if you want her price to escalate you need more than one determined buyers.

So her price would be determined less on how desirable she is and more on a realistic assesment of her value as a sales producer. If everything went right, you could probably expect her first three foals (by top stallions of course) to sell in the $1-2 million range. That's obviously a gamble that she doesn't produce god-awful crooked babies or worse, be like Genuine Risk and not produce any babies. Successive foals will be valued less on Rags' pedigree and race record and more on her produce record. And any buyer will be smart enough not to value her more than what they can expect to recoup in the first few years.

You also have to consider her pedigree does not have a European appeal (being by A.P. Indy) which might limit the buyers interested in her babies. The Japanese are fans of the line, so certainly seven figures for the first few babies isn't unfathomable.

It's really too bad that she and Jazil weren't flip-flopped. Seeking the Gold mares are more highly valued than his sons, while A.P. Indy studs are gold.

ETA for Karin C: The female family has had success in Europe absolutely. But there is a distinct bias against Seattle Slew line horses in Europe. And I was talking more about the marketability of her foals than of her herself. At last year's Keeneland September sale, yearlings produced by A.P. Indy mares averaged $190,685. The top five priced yearlings were bought by B. Wayne Hughes, Shadwell, Todd Pletcher, Shadai and Mike Ryan, despite being by "Euro-friendly" sires like Giant's Causeway and Kingmambo.

As I said initially, it isn't a question of the foals being seven figure yearlings, but the number of interested buyers is what will make the difference between a $1 million or $4 million or $10 million yearling. And the number of interested buyers is what makes me question anyone who would value this mare over $10 million. With the Maktoums and Coolmore out name the two bidders that would drive the bidding up to $10 million (let alone 20)? They simply don't exist in the world today....Show more

Rags to Riches is a sharp filly with a lot of talent, and she's bred to get the distance of the Belmont. But I think Curlin just may have the kind of talent that will put him on track for a position in the Hall of Fame, and that makes it hard for me to believe that Rags to Riches can beat him. I also have to say this: as a rule, 3-year-old fillies are more likely to beat colts in the autumn than in the spring or summer. I know that nowadays they put racing fillies on Regumate or some other steroid program to keep them from coming into heat, but from May through August is when fillies and mares are cycling most strongly. If Rags to Riches were mine, I think I'd forget the Belmont and keep her with the filly division until the autumn, try to win enough races in her own division to assure an Eclipse Award for that, then try her against colts in the fall. She's got races like the CCA Oaks coming up in her division that mean as much to her for a championship as the Belmont does for colts, and a hard race in the Belmont could knock her out for some of the races in her own division. I'd like to see her do enough to assure the Eclipse Award for three-year-old fillies before she goes against colts. If she goes in the Belmont and has a hard race, she might not be able to do enough later on to assure the Eclipse Award for 3-year-old fillies....Show more

$10-15 million if she was to be sold today (obviously not carrying a foal), add on another couple million if she retired today and was then sold next year in foal to either Giant's Causeway or Sadler's Wells (personally I would go to Kingmambo or Seeking The Gold). The problem with putting a value on her is that if she was sold 1 of the 2 parties with bottomless pockets (that would fight over her) owns her, so she is probably worth less since she is owned by Coolmore, the same if Sheik Mo owned her....Show more

Thats a hard price to figure but I do know Ashado sold for 9 million and she was the top selling Broodmare prospect ever. Raised a filly named Silmaril who went up against her and beat her. WoW that was a amazing day. Anywho, I would say she would be around that price also and possibly top her if they sell her. Look at the record priced two year old that sold for 16 million named Green Monkey. I can't wait to see what that boy can do. He has had some good works...Show more