Are Political Polls As Accurate Now As They Once Were ???
Until about 8-12 years ago, almost all US polling was done with telephone calls from lists of voters. The vast majority of people in the US had 'land phones' and did not have cell phones.
I have a daughter and son who are both out of college and on their own. Both are doing well and NEITHER of them has a land phone. They both have cell phones.
So my question has to do with the accuracy of the voting sample. I suspect that many of these pollsters rely upon voters with land lines and the result is skewed because voters with cell phone aren't included.
The famous 1948 Chicago Tribune Headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" is a case in point.
Pollster predicted that Thomas Dewey would beat Truman easily based on Telephone polls of registered voters. The PROBLEM was that in 1948, almost all wealthy and middle class people had telephones - BUT - few poor and rural farmers phone service.
The Chicago Tribune poll actually predicted "OF ALL PEOPLE WHO HAVE PHONE SERVICE, 55% WILL VOTE FOR DEWEY"
But when the poor people and rural farmers voted, the election result did not match the poll....