Will Global Warming/ Climate Change cause >150 million refugees in 40- 70 years?
Today's news (also covered by Yahoo) has another warning about problems expected from Global Warming, after 4 to 7 decades (~debate still on how many decades). Many potential refugees (up to 150 million by ~2050, or abouts) would be from poor or low-lying nations with few options. Should the "richer", most polluting nations now prepare well for these sea rise scenarios (23" by ~ 2050)?
{ reported May 12, 2009 } MANADO, Indonesia (AFP) - Rising sea levels that could wipe whole nations off the map and displace scores of millions of people are being overlooked in global climate change talks, island countries said Tuesday. Major emitters are pushing for greenhouse gas emissions cuts that are too low to prevent devastating sea rises, representatives said at the World Ocean Conference in Indonesia's Manado city.
"Dealing with environmental refugees will have a much more serious impact on the global economy and global security in fact than what wars have ever done to this planet," said Rolph Payet, a presidential adviser from the African island nation of the Seychelles.
wj2009-05-12T19:23:45Z
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I cant believe I am saying this. "In my day" I was told the earth would be frozen right now the best scientist of the time were saying it. Seriously their were scifi books where we had cities under the ice. What was happening was the being of the current politicization of science and the start of what I call science as a religion instead of the rigorous practice of testing and retesting that the scientific method demands. Scientist were right about a lot of things. Chlorofluorocarbons, carbon monoxide and other pollutants poring out of our cars tailpipes that the cadiladic converter turned into harmless gases, the use of pesticides that weakened egg shells and I could go on. The one area science was the furthest off was the climate. Now they are telling us if we do not do something now the world will end when their is conflicting scientific data. Test test and retest should be the mantra of every good scientist yet over and over we see preliminary reports. Reports that have flaws reports that have to be modified updated or changed. Computer models that 3 time out of 4 say the earth is headed for a heat wave then 1 out of 4 the earth is headed for a cooling trend. We do need to get off fossil fuels lets do it because we need to move to renewable but lets not forget the real economic and environmental cost of renewable energy. Ever here of the conservation of energy? Another thing that was supposed to happen was massive and I Mean massive world wide food shortages. That hasn't happened yet either. Now the EPA is thinking about calling carbon dioxide, the thing you exhale with every breath, a pollutant. We can not wait till the science is sure we must act now is the what I here over and over. Good scientist make sure they have tested and retested their data. They then open it up to critical evaluation by their piers. For some reason this is not happening on the global warming front. The scientist are disappointed the earth has not warmed as much as their models said it would. But instead of be honest they continue to say we are right without testable results.
The problem in determining just how many climate refugees there are is one of actually counting them. Here in the UK (where we are), the government knows where everyone is through Land Registries, Censuses, Electoral Rolls and a whole host of other means. The same is true throughout the developed world. If you or I move, then the government knows about it and thus we can become a statistic. In the countries worst affected by climate change there is rarely such a stringent system in place. Citizens may need to obtain a Medical Card (or similar) at birth but after that there’s little documentary interaction with the State. Consequent to which is that large numbers of people can move and there’s no accurate record of the numbers. It’s worth remembering that the report in The Guardian is referencing “Environmental Refugees” and thus, by definition, incorporates more than just Climate Change Refugees. The Guardian article focuses very much on CCR’s but then, so too, does the full UNU EHS press release upon which the article is based (the paper has only reproduced extracts but the full article is really just ‘more of the same’). The number of refugees specifically attributed to climate change tends to be significantly less pro rata than the UNU report. The IPCC for example uses a figure of 150 million by 2050. Interpolation from this figures would put the number of refugees by 2010 in the region of 12 to 15 million, which seems more plausible than 50 million. The majority of climate refugees have been caused as a result of water scarcity. Many of the world’s mightiest rivers including the Brahmaputra, Ganges, Yellow and Yangtze are fed by glacial meltwater from the Himalayas and hundreds of millions of people rely upon these rivers for their water supply. Himalayan glaciers are in retreat, in some places more than half have completely melted. This has resulted in greatly reduced meltwater runoff and the upper reaches of these rivers now have substantially lower cubic flows of water then they used to. The problem is compounded by the ongoing expansion of upriver irrigation schemes, dams and other projects that divert the water flow. Thus the decline in flow isn’t solely attributable to climate change. Undoubtedly many millions of people have been affected and have relocated. Quite how many would have been forced to move were it not for climate change is very hard to estimate. It’s safe to say that the number is in the millions. In terms of numbers of people affected then the most significant documented case of climate refugees comes from China where desertification has led to the relocating of more than a million people. Elsewhere, the largest single instance saw the evacuation of 500,000 people from the island of Bhola in the Ganges Delta.
Im sorry to say global warming is a myth,farther testing is needed. The cause of the warmth change now is a green house effect caused by the star were facing for the pole of the gravity and it is poling our side closer to the sun coasing warming.
This is the silliest yet! They don't know what they are talking about but will continue to try to scare us as long as our stupid politicians continue to pay them.