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Anonymous
Anonymous asked in EnvironmentGlobal Warming · 1 decade ago

Has global warming created 25 to 50 million refugees as the UN predicted?

In 2005 the UN predicted that global warming would create between 25 and 50 million refugees by 2010.

Is there any credible body that - now that we are at 2010 - says that this has happened?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/oct/12/...

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Update:

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EDIT -

Bob, you seem like a sensible guy. At what point do you start to think to yourself: "they keep making these predictions that turn out to be nonsense, could the theory they are working with possibly be wrong?"

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Update 2:

EDIT - ~(again to Bob)

I used the newspaper article as a convenient way to reference it. I could of linked to the UN report which did state that on the basis of projections and calculations made by their scientists.

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Update 3:

EDIT -

UN source for the article:

www.ehs.unu.edu/file.php?id=58

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13 Answers

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  • 1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    Nope. The "repent or die" wackos are always wrong. A generation ago they were claiming that the same dire results would happen because of global cooling, also caused by US industry.

    The only hope for the world is to make sure there is not another United States: We can't let other countries have the same number of cars, the amount of industrialization, we have in the U.S. We have to stop these Third World countries right where they are. And it is important to the rest of the world to make sure that they don't suffer economically by virtue of our stopping them. -- Michael Oppenheimer, Environmental Defense Fund

    The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population. -- Reid Bryson, "Global Ecology; Readings towards a rational strategy for Man", (1971)

    The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer -- Paul Ehrlich - The Population Bomb (1968)

    I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000 -- Paul Ehrlich in (1969)

    In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish. -- Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day (1970)

    Before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity . . . in which the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be facing depletion -- Paul Ehrlich in (1976)

    This [cooling] trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century -- Peter Gwynne, Newsweek 1976

    There are ominous signs that the earth's weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production - with serious political implications for just about every nation on earth. The drop in food production could begin quite soon... The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologist are hard-pressed to keep up with it. -- Newsweek, April 28, (1975)

    This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000. -- Lowell Ponte "The Cooling", 1976

    If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder by the year 2000...This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age. -- Kenneth E.F. Watt on air pollution and global cooling, Earth Day (1970)

  • 1 decade ago

    Oh dear, I'm sorry but this is getting pathetic, you cherry pick a 5 year old article, describe it as "the UN predicted" when it is the opinion of one man. While he does refer to GW the quote actually says

    "There are well-founded fears that the number of people fleeing untenable environmental conditions may grow exponentially as the world experiences the effects of climate change,"

    Environmental conditions could and would include any environmental issue, these would include earthquake, tsunami, flood but you see a headline and believe, this growing trend that British newspapers are some how a good source of scientific (or even) reliable information

    P.S. here is the real (full) quote before the reporter snipped a few words out.

    “There are well-founded fears that the number of people fleeing untenable environmental conditions may grow exponentially as the world experiences the effects of climate change and other phenomena.”

    http://thinkexist.com/quotation/there-are-well-fou...

    Given that ~2 million were displaced by the 2005 tsunami and nearly 5 million by the Chinese earthquake

    http://www.chinastakes.com/2008/5/millions-of-chin...

    And the devastation that is unfolding in Haiti in just the last 24 hours (as many as 100,000 dead) and ~3 million living in the open

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/14/2792...

    none of these are GW related but as the unedited comment shows he was not just talking about that, but other environmental issues as well.

    And as for this nonsense

    "Funny that this is still considered a "science" even when not one single prediction by these pseudo scientists have ever came true." "has ever came true"?

    They predicted that the Arctic would decline, it is

    http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic_t...

    http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100105_...

    The Arctic is melting well ahead of the original estimates.

    They predicted that sea level would rise, it is

    http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

    They predicted that Glaciers would decline, they are

    http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/repeatphoto/overview.htm

    They predicted global temperatures would continue to rise over a decade ago and 2000-2009 is the warmest decade on record.

    http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_release...

    The pseudo science is coming from deniers with nonsense about ice ages (starting next Tuesday) or fictional conspiracy theories about Gore, the U.N. James Hansen or the Greens etc etc etc

    Based on stunning evidence like Gores electricity bill from several years ago or Hansen attending a green rally and being arrested for protesting, shock horror, what a load of BS.

    Or stunning science like it's snowing in places that are in the middle of their Winter periods, so it must be the start of an ice age, and you guys seriously say you want to be called skeptics, you must be kidding.

  • Trevor
    Lv 7
    1 decade ago

    The problem in determining just how many climate refugees there are is one of actually counting them.

    Here in the UK (where we are), the government knows where everyone is through Land Registries, Censuses, Electoral Rolls and a whole host of other means. The same is true throughout the developed world. If you or I move, then the government knows about it and thus we can become a statistic.

    In the countries worst affected by climate change there is rarely such a stringent system in place. Citizens may need to obtain a Medical Card (or similar) at birth but after that there’s little documentary interaction with the State. Consequent to which is that large numbers of people can move and there’s no accurate record of the numbers.

    It’s worth remembering that the report in The Guardian is referencing “Environmental Refugees” and thus, by definition, incorporates more than just Climate Change Refugees. The Guardian article focuses very much on CCR’s but then, so too, does the full UNU EHS press release upon which the article is based (the paper has only reproduced extracts but the full article is really just ‘more of the same’).

    The number of refugees specifically attributed to climate change tends to be significantly less pro rata than the UNU report. The IPCC for example uses a figure of 150 million by 2050. Interpolation from this figures would put the number of refugees by 2010 in the region of 12 to 15 million, which seems more plausible than 50 million.

    The majority of climate refugees have been caused as a result of water scarcity. Many of the world’s mightiest rivers including the Brahmaputra, Ganges, Yellow and Yangtze are fed by glacial meltwater from the Himalayas and hundreds of millions of people rely upon these rivers for their water supply.

    Himalayan glaciers are in retreat, in some places more than half have completely melted. This has resulted in greatly reduced meltwater runoff and the upper reaches of these rivers now have substantially lower cubic flows of water then they used to.

    The problem is compounded by the ongoing expansion of upriver irrigation schemes, dams and other projects that divert the water flow. Thus the decline in flow isn’t solely attributable to climate change.

    Undoubtedly many millions of people have been affected and have relocated. Quite how many would have been forced to move were it not for climate change is very hard to estimate. It’s safe to say that the number is in the millions.

    In terms of numbers of people affected then the most significant documented case of climate refugees comes from China where desertification has led to the relocating of more than a million people. Elsewhere, the largest single instance saw the evacuation of 500,000 people from the island of Bhola in the Ganges Delta.

  • 1 decade ago

    I don't agree that "the UN predicted". As near as I can figure, the Guardian said "the UN predicted" based on what one official said. We also have far in excess of 50 million people right now that are fleeing bad farming conditions or local starvation, with no clear way to attribute whether they are climate refugees.How about this :

    I ( that's not any official agency, that's no scientific society, that's ME) predict, based on the shrinkage of South American and Himalayan glaciers, that we are going to see more than 50 million refugees before 2020 that have left their home areas because they no longer have enough yearround water to raise crops.

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  • 1 decade ago

    who's idea's was it anyways to try and control the universe and all that is and the life energy force within ...seriously some brave lil humans are we now...save the planet stop this do that not this...i never knew a race so confused fighting amongst themselves...what a shame to be from earth..well the humans at least..i bet the animals and nature know whats happening it just the expansion of the universe "time". use all your brain and you will know this.

  • ?
    Lv 6
    1 decade ago

    Refugees are created by natural catastrophe, fighting and/or population growth in areas that should not have been populated in the first place.

  • ?
    Lv 6
    1 decade ago

    The Global Warming people are now called Climate Change people because they recently found out that the Earth is in a cooling trend.

  • jerry
    Lv 5
    1 decade ago

    these people made the #1 mistake in GW doom and gloom and that was using only 5 years instead of the GWing 10 year mandate. did I mention yet that we need to act now and act fast

    like I said before have even one of their completely bogas predictions come though yet, the answer to that is no

  • 1 decade ago

    Of course not. The UN also stated that 50 million people died because of so-called "Global Warming", but none have.

    Funny that this is still considered a "science" even when not one single prediction by these pseudo scientists have ever came true.

  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    The UN should remember why it was created, and not shoot let their staff shoot their mouths off about unrelated things without solid proof.

    Names. places, dates no just stupid wild estimates..

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