Now that solar cycle 24 has started, what are the implications for global temps in 2010?
The last 30 running days of sunspot numbers are higher than at any time in more than three years. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txt Even though 2007, 2008, and 2009 were at the bottom of the solar cycle, all three years were among the top 10 warmest years of all time.
So solar cycle 24 has started, and solar cycles rise more rapidly than they fade. Meanwhile, El Niño has also recently entered a warming phase.
What kind of global temperatures should we expect for 2010?
2010-01-25T21:03:43Z
EDIT: According to White et. al. 1997, the time lag between solar irradiance and surface temperature is 0 ±2 years. http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/~dettinge/white1.pdf
2010-01-25T21:04:09Z
In other words: no lag.
MTRstudent2010-01-26T05:56:04Z
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Depends mostly on what ENSO does. ENSO can affect temperatures by ~0.4C or so in the space of a year.
I've read other papers suggesting a slight lag & the Sun is still very quiescent. So I'd guess minimal changes of note from the Sun, it's difficult enough to extract the ~0.1C peak-to-trough temperature change. Assuming the cycle really gets going, we'll see its biggest effect around 2015 IMO - next time we have an El Nino near a solar maximum.
Without a volcanic eruption, meteor strike or similar I'm very confident about getting the warmest year ever recorded around then.
"Because of the large thermal inertia of the ocean, the surface temperature response to the 10-12 year solar cycle lags the irradiance variation by 1-2 years." http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
So solar cycle 24 won't begin to impact global temperatures until sometime next year.
That being said, 2010 still has a better than 50% chance of breaking the 2005 global temperature record, in my estimation. Mostly because on top of the AGW signal, we're still in the midst of a moderate El Nino cycle, which is expected to last at least until the summer, and though it may have already peaked, may provide a positive anomaly for the rest of the year. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
The satellite data will be particularly interesting, since there's roughly a 6 month lag before ENSO is reflected in satellite temperatures. That means the current El Nino peak will be reflected right in the middle of the year, and the entire year will reflect El Nino conditions. It's not nearly as strong as the El Nino of 1997/98, so it may not break the 1998 satellite temperature record (satellites reflect ENSO changes more strongly than surface stations), but it should at least be close. http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/4way.jpg
*edit* hmm I have a hard time believing there's no lag between changes in solar irradiance and global temperatures. But if the lag is nil to small, obviously that increases the chances of a record-breaking year.
Regardless of what sunspots are TSI is currently at a level similar to 1996 levels, and considering 1996 saw the world still attempting to warm from the Mt Pinatubo volcanic forcing event, I would say that when the El-Nino dissipates in early spring global temperatures should be somewhere slightly warmer than 1996.
However, if you look at the 14 day forecast of the AO, you will see that it is predicted to go negative Mid Feb. by a similar amount that it did in Dec/Jan, so there is a good probability that this winter could be extended a little longer than normal. This will certainly strengthen most people's perception that a lower than average sunspot number causes cooler weather/climate. What drives the AO? Who knows, perhaps sunspots...
I don't see why there should be a year delay. Assuming we have been warming as a result of a constant radiative forcing, than an immediate increase in this RF should immediately increase that rate of warming.
The warming of the entire Earth system should be immediate with any radiative imbalance, and a temperature change should be immediately apparent on any coupled land-ocean anomaly. Maybe it will take a couple years for this warming to be OBVIOUS on a global temperature set, but if the radiative forcing is already there, then it should already be contributing to the rate of warming.
What Dana said is correct. The pick up of solar sunspot activity won't affect global mean temperature for a year or two, but el Nino warming, combined with long-term warming from manmade greenhouse gases, should keep 2010 at or beyond record levels.
News Doubter has a selective memory, or maybe cold weather just follows deniers everywhere.