Solar cycle 24 about to start up - what will deniers do now?

I never quite understood why they made such a big deal about the lack of solar activity in the first place. But I'm sure you know what will happen: blogs and message boards will be flooded with links about how solar activity is increasing, therefore it must be the cause of the warming (especially if we happen to hit a new temperature record soon.)

I'd even bet a dollar that within the next week someone will cite the exact same NASA link you just did as evidence that global warming is caused by the sun...

Skeptics dictionary. what the hell is that. ok i'm to blame of no longer checking the source of my information, yet Chem Flunky asked for organic cycles that's what she have been given, the graphs and the place they got here from replaced into no longer substantial, the reality that, the solar has cycles and how that impacts our climate replaced into. i'm no longer a conspiracy theorist believer.

This year is certainly not cooperating with denier claims while some even in the last week or so are still try to claim the Arctic is back to Average levels that is quite simply not true, quite the reverse.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_im...

The current low in sunspot numbers is similar to a period back in 1913 which was actually a little longer

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deep...

http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/index.cf...

As can easily be seen there was no ice age or cooling linked to that low. Who ever came up with the ice age theory really has thrown a spanner in the works for deniers as it is a claim that was going to be shown as false quite quickly.

It should also be said that 1998 was so warm because it was linked to one of the strongest El Nino's in a century, deniers ignore this and try to use it as a starting point to claim ten years of cooling

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1997/12/97120...

As far as 2009 and that 6th figure we are already on the way to that

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2009/...

That is looking more and more likely, If does then claiming cooling or ice age is going to be a little odd. I don't think the die hards will take any notice they are to locked into their faith but the real skeptics will see it as a valid piece of evidence.

As said above those with many names Randall/deco/etc etc will continue to use their back yards as the sample of global climate.

That would not really work for me as I live on an Island South of Australia with a very changeable weather we can have snow on the small mountain behind our capitol in the middle of summer just days after temps in the mid 30c's. So I'll stick with getting real information from the scientists who are researching this and not personal blogs.

As an outdoor enthusiast and spending much time in the back country of Colorado for over 40 years now and been blessed and cursed to be a world traveler, I can speak from a position of personal and intimate experience about AGW. Over this time I have seen the developments and proliferation of human activities not just in Colorado but many parts of the world that I visited decades ago and have recently revisited... the degradation and decline of entire eco systems is staggering, depressing and has made me fall to my knees and weep more than once. Those of you that claim mankind has no impact and we don't matter must not get outdoors much and take note of what is happening in our own lifetimes. I have witnessed our blue skies fade and the stars even far from cities get fainter and fainter every year... I have hiked through the forests of Colorado and seen the destruction by pine beetles because of less colder winters. I have taken note of the little rodents called Picas and their big brothers the Marmots that were once abundant at tree line disappear from many places do to climate change... I have been to Alaska and spoken with Eskimos about the new insects that appear every year that they do not have names for, and seen the effects of melting permafrost on the dieing forest there... In Jamaica and other parts of the Caribbean I snorkeled in the 70s above beautiful thriving reefs, I've returned to bleached out dead zones due to ocean acidification from CO/2 increases, and seen ghost town resorts on beaches that are filled with trash now and not people...

All these these things that I have seen and experienced way heavily on my heart... the lack of recognition of these things going on and the ignorance and antagonism shown here to the people who speak truth and not just hollow words will come back on many of you when you begin to see for yourself what is happening, and why, and by whom.

I want you to know that I do a smudge and pray for everyone to come together and see what we are doing to this planet and work as one to make it right again, rather than be divided and fail by continuing down this evil path of self destruction.

Give all the thumbs down you want, it only shows you are sticking those thumbs in your own eyes so you can remain blind.

We have little time to change course before we reach a tipping point, a point of no return... those of you that remain part of the problem and refuse to be part of the solution will actually suffer the most due to your denial of reality, lack of vision and thus being prepared for the worst case scenarios, you will live with the fate you create.

Sorry Dana, until this year proofs to be the 6th hottest after the fact, all NASA is doing is expelling hot air. Also this doesn't prove the huge assumptions that your side makes. All of your climate scientists are not looking into finding the real cause and real understanding of what is happening they are too busy trying to proof that man is responsible. So far none of your scientists that I know of have even guessed at what water vapor does to the climate and how much this drives temperatures. Remember that water vapor makes up a grand total of 95% of all green house gases with 94% being natural. Then again I keep on forgetting that your scientists are using the increased release of methane from thawing permafrost as sources of man made green house gases. Also, if we are going into an El Nino condition then we will be entering into a warmer time frame since El Nino's warm up the climate naturally.

I love Hunter's response, it shows just the type of people that are behind the AGW, it is more about taking away people's freedoms and forcing them to change to the lifestyle that these environmentalists want whether correct or not. If people want to live off of the grid and not rely on anything not produced by themselves then they can do that just don't force your lifestyle on me and I will not force my lifestyle on you.

I read a couple of the open minded answers, and i think you should be commended for your position. I think some people try to latch onto small details of AGW and other anthropogenic affairs, and attempt to argue you, or me, and other people with concerns, into a corner.

They use bullying, threatening, even commonly cristian (sic) tactics of fear, intimidation; you will lose your job, you will pay more tax, and so on. They say that it will ruin economies, but in fact, they are maneuvering to capitalise on these eco-technologies, like solar panels and other such advances. What they are working on is the opposite; how to compromise the advances, make them high demand, -high turnover. HIGH PROFIT.

The future is plain to see, but it can go two ways, either people can be liberated from the debt cycle of urban life, or freed from it, largely. A massive solar power station retains the ownership in the big corporations, and profit minded shareholders, not benevolent people/individuals.

Whereas, the solar power supply and hot water generated by the individual is a freedom, at last you have control and freedom from those power bills, and environmental responsibility.

But, these products like cars and fridges etc can be compromised if they aren't built for durability, and the ability to repair and recycle components, and unitary, mass produced advantages; cost and simplification of the spare parts chain.

So this planet needs a gentle, green, loving and caring revolution. A "teddybear" approach, but backed with a mailled glove. It is greed and consumption that fuel this destruction. The balance MUST be restored.

I fail to see the logic behind your enthusiasm. If sun activity increases and temperatures start to raise again for whatever reason, we will say that the severe drop in temperatures during a period of low activity is proof that the sun plays a bigger role in climate that what the alarmists claim. We are hoping for low sun activity to prove that the sun plays a bigger role in climate. Why are you hoping for an increase in sun acidity. To continue blaming co2?

Your claim that that this is one of the hottest years on record is also absurd. The data you provide is obviously corrupt. How many "you are confusing weather with climate questions" have you answered in the past year? The satellite data also does not support you assertion. NASA satellites show it has the e 9th coldest June in the 30 years of its record.

As for the influence of the sun, stop looking at trends and start concentrating on levels. Trends would be important if and only if, the earth's climate was a closed system and the sun was the only factor. Level wise the sun has been the most active it has been in the past 10 000 years. The level of the sun also affects the temperatures of the sea. The sea is a major regulator of climate. Think of it as a large pot of water on a stove. If the water is cold and you turn up the heat (sun) the water (oceans) will start to warm up. Even if you turn down the heat a bit the water will continue to heat up until we reach equilibrium. (This comment was made by a IPCC reviewer on the role of the sun in climate, but was ignored by the IPCC lead author).

Daweii - I'll state it now all warming on earth is caused by the sun. As for what the climate does it's controled by a lot of factors: the sun, the PDO, El Nino/El Nina conditions, the Jet streams, Ocean currents, Ocean Oscillation etc etc etc. The problem we have with the believers in the AGW theory is them stating the warming is all due to an increase of the CO2 content in our atmosphere.

So yes if warming does continue it will be proof that the sun is the main cause of any warming on this planet and all planets in this solar system. It will also prove that increasing and decreasing sun spot activity does effect how warm or cold it's going to be in a given year.

Edit: What you believers refute these facts? Do they nip at the heels of your paradigm?

The first link listed gives absolutely no proof of your claim. The scale on the X-axis is coarse and the last point (2008? nope 2006) is lower than the six previous years.

The second and last link are from a biased website and show nothing other than some blogers opinion of a report based on predictions of a solar jet stream. No where in the second link (biased or not) is the claim of 2009 being the 6th hottest year ever made. You would raise bloody hell if some one posted a similar link that refuted AGW.

I have a comment and a question. It would almost seem that you are rooting for global warming. Why? Do you want to be right and rub it in the face of the "deniers?" What are you going to do with yourself when there is no longer a debate?

I'll be honest, I have to give you credit. I've learned a lot in this forum from you, Dawei, beren, captain and others. But I've also learned just as much from the real skeptics here like BMR and Ottawa Mike. I am still not convinced, natural variability is stronger than any computer program humans will ever create. There are too many unknowns and too many poorly understood functions. Plus I just don't think we're as important as we would like to think.

Have you ever seen that episode of Southpark where Cartman has to go to San Francisco to rescue Kyle from the smug cloud? That's some good sh*t right there.

Well the deniers are going to ask why do you need the sun to pick up it's activity to get the earth warming again? If CO2 is the major driver of climate, is it asleep at the wheel? Are CO2 levels going down?

I'm too tired to go back and list all the previous predictions about Solar Cycle 24 and when it's going to start up and how strong it's going to be but David Hathaway comes up as a major prediction machine (who appears to be in a "prediction minimum").

And what's with all the "yyth hottest xxx on record" crap? Does the temperature prove the CO2 theory or something? Is it statistics that's going to prove climate drivers?

I have a prediciton. The decade 2000-2010 will be warmer than 1990-2000. And that proves what exactly? It could do that with level temperatures or even some cooling.

You can see the warming believers really scrambling now. Fortunately for us common sense people, a non-warming or cooling planet will throw a serious if not fatal wrench into CO2 driven warming and that's just driving you nuts isn't it?.