Solar Activity and Climate - what will this mean for us?
The sunspot count for today, September 10, 2013 is a measly 13. We are supposed to be at or nearly solar max for cycle 24.
http://www.spaceweather.com/
DeJager and DuHau projected no sunspots would be possible by 2015 due to the sun more or less going to sleep. Note also that the soalr wind and EMF/IMF are also VERY weak for where we are supposed to be in this cycle.
If the sun is slowing down this fast, first will it continue and does anyone know where the bottom might be? Some projections are this will last at least to 2030 and perhaps longer. How significantly will this impact our climate?
?2013-09-10T08:21:35Z
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The sun has been in a Grand Solar Maximum for the last half of the twentieth century. The level of solar activity was the highest in over 8000 years. It is now coming down off of that maximum, and doing so rather precipitously. The solar magnetic field shields the earth from galactic rays, and we are now losing th at shield. Work by Dr. Nir Shaviv indicates that there is a strong correlation between galactic ray flux and earth's climate, particularly the coming and going of ice ages. Work by Dr. Henrik Svensmark indicates that the relationship is mediated by the creation of condensation nuclei. Taken together, these relationships suggest that we may be in the beginning stages of a period of global cooling, similar to the little ice age. Some analysts predict it will extend to the year 2100.
The truth is we don't know, but it is unlikely sunspots will stop by 2015, as we are mid point of the cycle, and the tail of the cycle is usually long, it seems where the sun is concerned we are in for some interesting times. The IPCC and NASA say the sun has little effect on our climate because TSI alters so little, but historical correlation shows that there is a significant effect, and because we don't understand the causation doesn't mean it's not real. Me I think it is going to get colder for a long time.
An ancient Greek scientist recorded sunspots around 2000 years ago and I believe he noted the effects of the weather. The Chinese have records of sunspots 2000 years ago. In the west. Sunspots have been recorded for around 300 years and the effects on crops have been proven by betting on wheat prices. NASA scientists wrote a very detailed book over 30 years ago on the massive and immediate effects they have on weather, and still, people will say that they have only a minor, insignificant impact. Even NASA will sometimes claim this. And modelers won't even use them in other programming. Can't do links but YouTube Willie soon the sun also...... if forget but that should work. Interesting speech on the sun and weather. Can't edit so......
I don't think we know. Like most climate predictions, past solar predictions have be way off so again, like climate, I don't put much stock in future solar predictions.
However, as far a solar predictions, the most interesting name to me is Theodor Landscheidt. Google his name and see what comes up.
From what I've learned here, the Sun is not a major player. Even a return to Maunder Minimum levels of activity would only offset at most a couple of decades or so of man made warming.