What are the chances my flight will be canceled altogether?

Question

I have a flight booked from Dallas to Phoenix in October on Southwest Airlines.  The original flight date was for May, but COVID-19 shut that down.  Since both AZ and TX are "red zone" states as far as the virus is concerned, a person can travel from one of those states to the other, but not to a lesser infected area.  Southwest has changed the times of the flight (changing plane/flight numbers) three times within the past week, citing low passenger numbers for the flights and employee layoffs.  I'm thinking that Southwest is dire straits, and by the time October gets here, the airline may be shut down.  They're not giving refunds, but transfers to flight dates that are "further out" ending in July of 2021.  I'm thinking I may have to end up driving (a two-day drive) and I will lose my ticket money altogether if things don't improve.

? · Answer

I think it's unlikely the flight will be cancelled. However, Arizona is now "green" on the Johns-Hopkins map- the rate of new cases is down considerably.

el stapler · Answer

Airlines wait until the last possible moment to cancel flights.  Some routes have restrictions so those routes get canceled as soon as they know but for the most part, the airline doesn't know how things are going to be in 3 months so they won't cancel until they have too.  Of course, that's bad news for you but there's not much you can do about it.  If you cancel the flight, you'll only get credit but if the airline cancel's the flight, you'll get a full refund so you'll rolling the dice.

MS · Answer

No one here has any idea.

Roger K · Answer

How do you expect us to do anything except guess?
The odds are either 0 or 100%. There is nothing in between.

What are the chances my flight will be canceled altogether?

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