Falling house prices - should we sell sell sell?!?

no i would hang on as the prices will eventually start to go back up again, hang on in there

There was a good article in the Guardian today in which a range of experts give their opinion:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2007/dec/05/housep...

Take a look at that, its much better than anything I could make up! For my few pence though I would say....

Crash is a very strong word, and saying it "seems pretty certain that house prices are finally going to crash in the UK next year" is not accurate! There are still two main shools of (equally valid) though on this:

1) There is still an undersupply of suitable housing stock in the UK, and demand continues to exceed supply - prices cannot "crash" until this has been resolved and

2) The UK housing market is fundamentally overvalued, and some sort of correction is inevitable.

Annoyingly, both of these things are true - so its hard to come up with hard and fast rules. But before you think about selling, asking yourself:

Why are you doing this? Is it to make a few quid? If it is, it will be only "a few quid" and unlikely to be worth the inveitable hassle - particularly if you happen to like your house / area and have a family.

Is it a good time to sell now? If your more pessamistic predictions are correct, then you have probably missed the boat. The market is well publicised to be cooling, winter is a notoriously bad time to sell, and there is a well documented lack of buyer confidence (particularly with interest rates high - even with todays cut).

Finally, unless you are mortgaged to the hilt - you don't actually "lose a fortune" when the market dips. You own a house, which is worth the price of a house - if houses are worth less, and you want to move house, you sell your house and buy another house - in this respect it is all monopoly money! The way you loose is if you get stuck with a lot of negative equity.

The problem with rumours of things like a house price fall is that it can tend to be self-fulfilling prophecy. Probably best not to panic sell on this basis.

If house prices do fall this only matters if you plan to sell in the next few years and if you are in danger of negative equity. If you plan to stay for a few years, it makes no difference to you what your house is worth now, and hopefully in a few years the market will have recovered from any short-term falls. Remember if you think you will only move to go up the ladder in a few years, and the market does fall, the house on the next rung up will also be cheaper so it will all even itself out for you. At the end of the day a house is a home, not an investment, and i would only consider selling if you actually intended (for lifestyle reasons) to sell and not buy again or planned to relocate to an different area (with different housing market patterns). Otherwise if you think about it, you can't actually lose money on your house, as long as you see no problems with the mortgage problems/repossession. The strategy of your friends may actually save them money but it is a very risky gamble and always remember the costs of selling and buying again (with stamp duty, legal fees, mortgage fees, decorating, moving) can easily reach £5k, which is a pretty big stake to risk.

Think it is a blip. Interest rates will go down to help buyers.

I think there is a lot of uncertainty after America's sub-prime fiasco and jitters after northern rock. People will wait to see what happens, but will have the same issue on the UK for the next decade - a major shortage of houses. Supply and demand forces will take over and where there is a shortage to supply, prices will increase. It may even out, ut a drop? I think it is unlikely.

I have heard similar for the last 10 years and seen other blips, but the trend, I think, will continue, maybe just at a more modest rate.

It is very unlikely that house prices are going to crash like they did years ago, fair enough things are slowing down but there is still a housing shortage so houses are still in demand. I would keep the house, you could always rent it out whilst you go travelling, the rent will cover the mortgage payments and then you will still have a house to come back to with more of your mortgage paid off.

That depends on your long term goals. The housing market will most likely fall, but will undoubtedly climb again. Analysts project the downturn will last until 2009 or so. That's not that long of a downturn. For you to sell sell sell at this point is a very risky venture. Is it worth the hassle to move out and purchase a new house in 2010 to save yourself 10% of the value of your house that may be back by 2009? I doubt it.

They are idiots if they sell. What does it matter if your house value falls so long as you intend to LIVE in the flipping thing?

This is a silly idea. If they are settled they should stay put. House values rise and fall. They have just risen consistently for 15 years, which is unusual. Overall the trend is always going to be UP but as I say, what the hell difference does it make if you intend living in it? Renting is usually a more expensive option on a like for like basis (size of house and area)

No one can predict with any certainty if we have hit "bottom" or there are more losses to come. When the bottom is announced it will have already come and gone. Here in California the sellers who can defer their sale seem to be willing to do so in hope of better days. But those who made that decision last Spring are watching their value erode further. Higher quality homes in the best areas have fared somewhat better. It all depends on your particular plan and your entire financial picture.

the real estate market isn't doing to well now but i would sell then buy something thats price has significantly dropped. Where i live a 6 bedroom 3 story victorian house went from $130,000 to $99,000. So now probably is the time to sell and then buy cheap

when you buy your house you will have to pay Stamp Duty ( 1% on 170k ) and legal fees. When you sell you have to pay the mortgage lender, estate agent fees , legal fees. Even if the house goes down in value you still pay the lender what is due to them. The housing market is always up and down but over the long term the price is up. I bought my first house for 9,000 and its valued now at 180,000. But we've seen crashes and booms over the years and sure to continue.