US Geological Society Predicts a "6.8" magnitude Earthquake wil hit Phil. Plates Tonight it is true or not?

It is a hoax and earthquake warnings are listed as percent probabilities, with estimated magnitude ranges, and usually over a much longer period of time.

Nobody can exactly forecast an earthquake.

NO. It is a hoax because earthquakes can't be predicted. But there was a 5.3 earthquake today in Luzon.

Pls. spread this and help stop the panic. Thanks!

Inquirer:

USGS: Earthquakes can't be predicted

INQUIRER.net

First Posted 16:25:00 05/14/2008

MANILA, Philippines--Earthquakes cannot be predicted, the US Geological Survey (USGS) has said as rumors swirled here that 6.8-magnitude quake would hit the Philippines Wednesday night.

“Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future,” the USGS said on its website.

Text messages have been passed on supposedly from a "US Geological Society" predicting the strong quake.

The US Geological Survey says it focuses its efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions.

“However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes,” the USGS said.

“For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major earthquake occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67 percent and 60 percent in Southern California,” it added.

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4 May 2008

2:00 PM

PHIVOLCS CLARIFICATION

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology would like to inform the general public that the text message currently circulating in the Philippines about a prediction by a certain “US Geological Society” of a “magnitude 6.8 earthquake to hit Philippine Plates tonight”, purportedly issued by the “Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office” IS A HOAX. This hoax started the day after the Magnitude 7.9 China earthquake of May 12, 2008.

There is no organization currently capable of predicting an earthquake which is very specific in terms of magnitude and the date. There is no “US Geological Society”, only US Geological SURVEY but this agency does not issue immediate predictions especially for areas outside the United States of America. Past experiences show that rumors of a predicted strong earthquake are common after disastrous earthquakes in nearby countries.

The Philippines can be affected by a major earthquake but as to when exactly this would happen cannot be predicted and what is important is we continue to practice earthquake preparedness and risk reduction measures.

PHIVOLCS CLARIFICATION ON ALLEGED 6.8 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE 14 MAY 2008 2:00 P.M. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology would like to inform the general public that the text message currently circulating in the Philippines about a prediction by a certain “US Geological Society” of a “magnitude 6.8 earthquake to hit Philippine Plates tonight”, purportedly issued by the “Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office” IS A HOAX. This hoax started the day after the Magnitude 7.9 China earthquake of May 12, 2008.

I also got the same message off a cellphone SMS just a few minutes ago.

First off, there is no US Geological Society. It's US Geological Survey -- http://www.usgs.gov./ Now there's a UP Geological Society but I don't think they are that equipped to predict a major tectonic movement. In fact no scientific effort have been known to accurately predict when an earthquake will hit much less how strong it will be.

So, is it true that a US Geological Society is predicting a 6.8 earthquake will hit the Philippines Plates tonight?

NO. NOT TRUE.

Earthquakes can be scientifically predicted by observing tiny cracks in rocks and how they widen when the rock is under stress. Other changes are also observable when a rock starts to compress, including changes in electrical resistance and the speed at which sound waves propagate through the rock. The swelling of cracks in a rock before it breaks is called dilantancy. It begins when the force on the rock is about half the force required for it to break.

In Russia and The United States, small earthquakes have been predicted up to five years in advance, but predicting large earthquakes or earthquakes around certain faults can be difficult. The rate of certainty has to be high for a warning to be issued. Earthquake prediction is still very much an imperfect science, like predicting the weather.

But this particular one seems to be FAKE!

It's just a hoax according to Phivolcs

Here's the article from gmanews.tv:

Text messages warning of a powerful quake Wednesday night a hoax - Phivolcs

05/14/2008 | 05:04 PM

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) sought Wednesday afternoon to allay fears caused by text messages circulating about a supposedly powerful quake that was to strike the country in the evening.

In a radio interview, Phivolcs' Isabel Abigania categorically said there is no truth to such text messages, saying there is currently no available tool that could be used to predict the occurrence of an earthquake.

Abigania also noted that Phivolcs is not aware of the entity United States Geological Society, wjhich is the supposed source of the text messages.

"Ipinapaalam namin sa publiko walang katotohanan ang text na kumakalat sa lindol na mangyayari mamayang gabi (We want to inform the public there is no truth to the text messages circulating about a powerful quake that will strike tonight)," Abigania said in an interview on dzRH radio.

"Walang tool para mag-predict ng quake. Walang US Geological Society, ang katrabaho natin US Geological Service (We have no tools to predict quakes. And there is no such thing as a US Geological Society. What we're work with is the US Geological Service)," she said.

The text messages had indicated a magnitude-6.8 quake would strike the country.

This came after a powerful quake hit China where tens of thousands of people were killed. - GMANews.TV

Is this related or a new one, based on this news:

34 aftershocks follow Isabela quake--Phivolcs

Philippine Daily Inquirer

First Posted 15:50:00 05/14/2008

ILAGAN, Isabela -- At least 34 aftershocks followed the magnitude 5.4 earthquake that shook Isabela province Tuesday night, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said.

The aftershocks were recorded until Wednesday morning, the agency said.

The earthquake, whose epicenter was located 88 km southeast of Cauayan City, struck at 10:14 p.m. It was felt at Intensity 5 in Dinapigue town; Intensity 4 in Palanan and Maconacon towns here, and in Baler, Aurora; Intensity 2 in Baguio City; and Intensity 1 in Metro Manila.

No casualty or damage was reported but Senior Supt. Dominador Aquino Jr., Isabela police director, said they received reports that villagers in the coastal towns of Maconacon, Divilacan and Palanan panicked when the earthquake struck.

Villamor Visaya Jr., Inquirer Northern Luzon, Tonette Orejas, Inquirer Central Luzon

This is not true. U.S. Geological themselve says Earthquake cannot be predicted. see the link below.

You cannot predict whether an earthquake is going to happen or not... that's a fact.

However, it seems like a lot of people got scared by this news.. and all i can say is... just pray and know that God is always with us.

just checked the USGS website and it contains the report that indeed an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.3 hit Isabela Philippines, 5:48 this morning. check their site:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Qu...