Who will win the 135th Kentucky Derby?

My top 2 picks right now are I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire.

I Want Revenge because of his win in the Wood Memorial. He overcame repeated trouble to win. On the down side, I'm not sure he's beat anybody worthwhile yet.

Friesan Fire because he hasn't done anything wrong. A lot of handicappers are knocking him because his last race was in mid-March. But his trainer, Larry Jones, has finished second in the Derby two years in a row with horses that had unconventional preps.

Both of those picks are subject to change if they get a really bad post position or have lousy works at Churchill.

Pioneerof the Nile looks like a good horse, but he's only run on synthetics. I'm not betting him for the Derby, even if he has good workouts at Churchill. I got burned too bad on Colonel John last year (he was another synthetic horse everyone thought would handle the dirt.)

But I'll be the first to jump on the Pioneer bandwagon if he proves himself on dirt on Derby day.

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I Want Revenge looks like the best of the potential field. You must watch the Wood Memorial http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/videos/3630. IWR's race in the Wood was the most impressive of all the Derby preps.

Pioneerof the Nile deserves a good look. The big question is how will he take to the dirt. If you are looking for a price I think Giant Oak should love the 1 1/4 mile Derby distance. He will be running at the end and could get a piece of the Derby Pie.

I Want Revenge will be the pre race favorite...but don't forget that he has already lost to Pioneer of the Nile....Twice.

Quality Road looked unbeatable in the Florida Derby....but he has a Quarter Crack....remember Big Brown's Belmont race on his Quarter Crack. Unbridled's Song was also the favorite to win the Derby, running on a Quarter Crack that everyone said would be no problem....he finished 5th.

Friesian Fire...love his breeding....don't love the level of competion he has faced and his winning times. He is also going into the race 6 or 7 weeks after his last prep race. That seems a little long for me.

Dunkirk was easily beat by Quality Road in the Florida Derby and is very lightly raced.

Pioneer of the Nile is by Empire Maker...who ran second on a sore foot in the Derby. He later went on to win the Belmont and others. POTN is out of a Lord at War Mare. Lord at War ran great in dirt routes winning the Big Cap (Santa Anita Handicap) and others.

I will be betting POTN to win with a mix of the others who are closers in the exotics. I will include the MSW winner Mr. Hot Stuff in the bottom couple of spots. He is greatly improving and closers always round out the board in the Derby, after all the better horses beat up on each other. As always this race will resemble a stampeed more than a horse race. Why don't they limit it to 15 horses???

We still have a couple of weeks to go, and there are usually a couple of drop-outs during the last couple of weeks. Horses that have the wear and tear of the Derby trail catch up to them, horses whose owners decide that maybe it isn't a good idea to send their horse against the best three-year-olds in the country at a mile and a quarter. So I think it's best to "hold your cards" at this point-- the field may get shaken up.

That said, I think it's pretty hard not to like Friesan Fire; I think the concern that most people have about him is that he hasn't raced since 3/14, and that's a long time to go between races and still stay sharp. I'd personally rather bring a horse to the Derby a little short than squeezed dry and past his peak, because it's safer for the horse. I think he may have the class to be in contention even if he is a little short, although that last furlong at Churchill Downs, every horse needs every bit of conditioning and stamina he can reach for.

Dunkirk has just had a really solid workout in Florida http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/50... I think he's sitting on top of a a break-out race, but the question is will it be the Derby or the Preakness. He may also be a short horse-- in his case, short on experience in addition to conditioning. He did good to finish second in the Florida Derby in just his third career start and I'm sure he got things out of that race that he needed. The question is, did he get enough?

I feel that Chocolate Candy is flying under the radar on many pundit's screens and is set for a dynamite race. He was a good second in the Santa Anita Derby and horses that have had a good race in the SA Derby, but didn't win, have a history of doing well in the Kentucky Derby. Everybody looks at the winners of the prep races but you have to look at the horses that finished in the money, too.

Quality Road is a legitimate talent. He's got the quarter crack problem, but so far that seems to be under control. However, that's the sort of thing that can come apart real fast: he's at risk to miss the Derby entirely if the quarter crack isn't stabilized.

General Quarters has picked the right time to peak, but he's got a tough job ahead of him. He's the "feel-good" story of the Derby so far: claimed from his first start for $20,000, owned by Tom McCarthy, his 75-year-old trainer, the real chance for everyone who dreams of hitting it big in racing on a shoestring. But I really worry when you get someone like McCarthy training a legitimate Derby horse: the heat from being in the spotlight is intense; the crush of media attention can cause even someone who has been through this before to second-guess how he's training the horse. It can cause mistakes in the training regimen: a workout too fast or too slow, doing something different because of what the press is saying.

Musket Man is somewhat of an unknown quality. He's by Yonaguska out of a Fortunate Prospect mare, not exactly a pedigree that guarantees the ability to get 1-1/4 miles against top-quality opposition. There are a lot of horses that go into the Derby with questions about their class and stamina hanging in the air, and come out of the Derby with those questions answered in the negative.

I Want Revenge looks good off his wins in the Gotham and Wood, and some pundits have him as their top pick. I just wonder: how often does it happen that a horse can put together three great wins in a row against top opposition? I don't have a solid reason I can put my finger on for not liking this horse, but I don't like him for the Derby.

Pioneerof The Nile is looking to win his fourth in a row. The same that applies to I Want Revenge applies to him. I just don't have a good feeling for this horse.

I haven't firmly made my pick yet, and I want to wait until the Derby field is really firmed up before I choose. Still possible for big changes.

well ya i still need to see some more workouts and post positions before i finalize my pick but here is something to consider. what is the pace for this race going to look like? with injuries to The Pampelmousse and Old Fashioned most of the early speed is gone. we are likely to see soft fractions which is why the Shiekh will put Regal Ransom in the race. this derby may be won wire to wire like War Emblem did. i dont think that will happen but it says enough to be able to downgrade the closers in my eyes. i really think a horse just off the pace will win this thing. that is a plus for Quality Road, I Want Revenge and Friesan Fires chances with their running styles. Dunkirk while an awesome horse may be too far back and face too much traffic. his jockey is gonna have to keep him close if he is gonna have a chance.

than again you never know the rank Pioneer of the Nile may just challenge Regal Ransom and start rippin off fast fractions. which then throws out the whole above theory.

my point is if we want to pick a winner we have to first try to figure out what kind of race we are going to see.

ill say this, nobody beats a healthy Quality Road and i expect him and Friesan Fire to battle in the stretch. you see at this point i have more questions than answers but it will start to clear up after more workouts and post positions.

Well I don't now who will win it.

I have little hope that Rachel Alexandra runs in the derby but Don't think that will happened. So I will have to said that mi pick is I WANT REVENGE because he is so versatile, he won the gotham in front, and he won the Wood Memorial from the back after a terrible start.

So that's my top pick, I also like Desert Party and Chocolate Candy as longshots.

as long as the quarter crack problem is taken care of, Im looking at Quality Road to win the derby. QR and I Want Revenge seem to be the two best horses when you look at the numbers (dosage, CD, and best Beyer figure) but Revenge will prolly have low odds and make him only got in exotic bets. Im taking Friesan Fire in second and am split between Chocolate Candy and Giant Oak for third. with all the hype about speed missing (i.e. old fashioned and the pomplemousse), i may throw regal ransom in the mix for third as well.

of course the field can change but i like my trifecta at the moment:

Quality Road

Friesan Fire

Chocolate Candy/Giant Oak/Regal Ransom

I am thinking Papa Clem and I want Revenge as 1 - 2.

I like Chocolate Candy too.

Quality Road.

Alex Soles on Street Hero