Will 2010 be warmer or cooler than 2009?

Thanks.

I'd personally put it at a 75% chance 2010 will be hotter than 2009, but it depends on which temperature record you're looking at too.

I would be very surprised if 2010 isn't hotter in the satellite record. Reason being, there's about a 6 month lag before changes in ENSO are reflected in the satellite temperatures. For this reason, even though ENSO started to move toward El Niño conditions at the beginning of 2009, it wasn't reflected in satellite temps until about July. This caused many deniers to claim there was a problem with the surface stations (which reflected the El Niño cycle earlier), but I also correctly predicted the warming of satellite temps a few months later:

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=200907...

But back to the issue at hand, the point is that we've been in moderate El Niño conditions since the summer, and they're expected to last until roughly next summer. Taking the 6 month lag into account, the 2010 satellite temps will reflect 12 months with El Niño conditions, whereas in 2009 they only reflected about 6 months of El Niño. Thus I would be surprised if 2010 weren't hotter than 2009 in the satellites, and I'd put money on it if any deniers had the guts to take me up on it.

Since the surface stations reflect changes in ENSO more quickly, it depends on how long the El Niño cycle lasts next year, but there's a good chance they'll show a warmer 2010. Let's also not forget that the next solar cycle still hasn't started up. That should probably happen in 2010, so that will also assist the year in being warmer than 2009.

Who knows? Anything can happen in just one year. Take 1998, for example, which was the strangest year in recent history..

But decades are a different matter. The 2000s (9 of the ten warmest years in 150 or more) were significantly warmer than the 1990s, which were significantly warmer than the 1980s which were significantly warmer than the 1970s.

So I fearlessly predict the 2010s will be warmer than the 2000s. I'd give 10:1 odds, and taking me up on it would be a sucker bet.

I am going to guess it will be warmer, because of El Nino. But as others have pointed out, any one year change is more accurately characterized as a change in weather rather than a change in climate. It is also true that any one year prediction of weather has a lot of room for error.

My strongest prediction is that the most revealing event will be when the so-called skeptics start telling us that because of El Nino, the average temperatures of 2010 don't count as a significant data point in monitoring the warming trend. These will be the same so-called skeptics who tell us we are in a cooling trend which is demonstrated by average temperatures lower than those of 1998- ignoring the fact that 1998 was a strong El Nino year.

even while shown incorrect, the deniers proceed with their comparable fake speaking factors as though no longer something ever got here approximately- a million. There *has* been statistically significant warming interior the final 15 years. All that fox information hoopla final 3 hundred and sixty 5 days is now rendered pointless, as cutting-edge temperatures have placed it from approximately ninety 3% to over ninety 5% certaintly of a warming vogue. 2. Scientists did no longer fudge numbers. in reality they have been chanced directly to have finished no longer something unlawful. They did what every person do in fights of this nature- ridicule and block their fighters. yet they did no longer something to fudge archives. Deniers have self belief in organic cycles, except those organic cycles contain non everlasting cooling, wherein case they're specific that worldwide warming has stopped. over the final twenty years they have claimed GW has stopped diverse cases, basically to work out it proceed the upward vogue. that's a minimum of, exciting listening to those human beings.

I would guess that there is about a 51% chance that 2010 will be warmer than 2009.

I certainly wouldn't be wagering the mortgage on this year’s temperatures. We are starting the year with an el Nino with an uncertain end. Though it is not certain whether or not it has yet peaked, el Nino should continue until at least spring. There is always a temperature lag which will affect the earth's weather for a few months after ENSO is no longer positive. What ENSO does after the current el Nino will be the deciding factor. It could remain ENSO neutral for a few months or flip to a la Nina or it could revert back into another el Nino as it did earlier this decade.

There are a couple of other things to watch for in 2010. The PDO that has been affecting the North American continent with cooler than normal temperatures, particularly the northwest, appears to be on the wane. Though it hasn't had much of an effect on global climate, it is likely the leading causes of global warming denial in North America http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/11/ncdc-october... .

The Arctic sea ice is the other. Since it has been flirting with a similar trend as the 2007-2008 record minimum in an el Nino year it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on this year as it is very possible that we will set a new record minimum ice coverage.

My thoughts on what will happen. I believe that 2010 will definitely be in the top five warmest years on record and very likely in the top three.

I am going to guess that we will be warmer and probably very close to 1998.

I'm actually more interested in what the deniers will do when they get their cooling myth spanked. I'm sure that watching their reactions and fairytale explanations of how it could have happened will be much more entertaining than watching the thermometers...

It's already fun watching them set up their "you can't trust the data" defenses. They remind me a lot of Vizzini...

_

Since our understanding of climate is largely statistical in nature, I'll bet with the house.

I bet 2010 will be warmer than 2009.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Heat drives the weather. An increase in heat can be masked from showing up as a temp. rise. The energy can be absorbed by the formation of storms. It can give the appearance of swings in the temp from year to year. When we look back over decades , or centuries we see this trend. We also see a sudden, very rapid increase in world wide temps, along with more pronounced fluctuations. Those wild fluctuations will be very disruptive to the world's commercial food production.

Got food?

Overall for the entire planet, slightly warmer.