So, what exact conditions will it take (at the minimum) for Roger to get the No.1 ranking back from Rafa?

Okay I'll try to explain this without copying and pasting from someone else's sports article.

First off, Roger Federer will gain nothing (ranking points wise) even if he wins Wimbledon again. Tennis rankings are based on what you've done in the past year (Not calendar year, but just in exactly the past year since the current time). This is why it is so hard for players to stay on top of the rankings or stay near the top while it is much easier to move up. A Grand Slam title, like Wimbledon, is worth up to 2000 ranking points. If you win it, you get 2000 points. However, that means that you must defend those 2000 points one year later. That is the dilemma that Roger Federer is currently facing.

Meanwhile, Rafael Nadal did not play at Wimbledon last year, meaning that he lost his 2000 points (Because he won it in 2008) last year, but since he now has nothing to defend from 2009, he has zero to defend now. This means that he can gain up to 2000 points but won't lose anything.

Nadal currently holds 8745 points while Federer is at 8525.

So the best that Federer could do in Wimbledon is to keep the gap close. If Roger can win the title he won't lose anything. Nadal is guaranteed to gain at least 10 points just for making the 1st round (This is to award qualifiers). After that, Rafa will gain 45 total points if he makes the 2nd round, 90 if he makes the 3rd, 180 for achieving the fourth, 360 for making the quarterfinals, 720 if he earns a berth in the semis, 1200 if he reaches the final, and 2000 if he wins the entire tournament.

What those numbers show is that the points you receive increase exponentially as you get further. For example, notice how the first two wins earn you 90 points but if you win the last two (semis and the final) it's worth 1280 points (the difference between the 2000 for winning the tournament and the 720 you get if you lose in the semifinals).

All that being said, Roger Federer would need to win Wimbledon so as to not take a hit of at the least 800 points, and hope that Rafael Nadal gets no further than the quarterfinals. Even if Federer wins the tournament, if Nadal reaches the semis, the gap will increase to almost 1000 points (Calculations below)

Nadal (8745 + 720 = 9465)

Federer (8525 + 0 = 8525)

If Nadal reaches the final his lead will increase by even more, and of course if he wins the tournament he will gain 2000 points plus that means Federer will lose many as well, so the gap would be AT LEAST 3000 points if Rafa wins the tournament

Nadal (8745 + 2000 = 10745)

Federer (8525 - AT LEAST 800 = AT MOST 7725)

So Federer's only chance to get the ranking back from Nadal in the near future (Prior to the U.S. Open) is to win Wimbledon, hope that the gap is still under 1000 points because...

Most of the top players only play two tournaments between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. These tournaments are the Masters Series 1000 tournaments in Canada and Cincinnati. Federer won the one in Cinci, meaning he once again has a lot of points to defend here, 1000 to be exact, as that is how many points a win at one of these tournaments is worth. However, Federer only made the quarterfinals of the Rogers Cup in Canada last year, meaning he received 180 ranking points for that tournament and therefore could potentially gain 820 more if he wins the tournament. Meanwhile, Rafael Nadal also made the quarterfinals at that tournament, so he has 180 he could lose.

So, if Federer is able to keep the gap between them under 1000, which would require him to win Wimbledon and for Nadal to lose in the semifinals (Calculations below)

Nadal 8745 + 720 = 9465

Federer 8545 + 0 = 8545

9465 - 8545 = 920

Then Federer would potentially be able to take the ranking back at the Rogers Cup later this summer if he wins the tournament and Nadal fails to make it past the 2nd round.

I know this is all very confusing and if you need further clarification just ask in Additional Details about what part you don't get and I'll be glad to help.

Tennis rankings are based on a 52 week system which tends to confuse people that don't understand how it works because a player can win a grand slam and actually drop in the rankings which can seem stupid but makes sense. Otherwise, particularly at the beginning of a season, things could get really strange if an unknown were to win the first major of the year and a Federer or Nadal lost in the first round or didn't even play which would result in the unknown being ranked #1 and a Federer or Nadal not even being ranked in the top 100.

Currently Nadal has 8745 points with Federer having 8525. The points awarded for a slam are W - 2000, RU - 1200 SF - 720 QF - 360 etc. Federer has technically lost 2000 points now since he was the champion last year so he can't improve on his 8525 point total when the new rankings are released, only maintain his total if he were to win Wimbledon. Nadal did not play last year so every round he advances in will only add to his current total.

If you want to do the math to address every situation in which Federer could regain the number 1 ranking, www.atpworldtour.com has the breakdown of how points are awarded for all types of tournaments as well as player's activity from past years which details exactly how many points they earned in each tournament they played in last year.

There are many scenarios that could unfold but if Nadal goes deep in Wimbledon or Federer loses early it doesn't seem very likely that Federer could regain #1 anytime soon since this summer he will be defending 1000 pts from a Master's victory and 1200 pts from finishing runner up at the US Open.

players gain points at tournaments they play and only keep them for a year until the same tournament comes around the next year.

federer won wimbledon which is 2000 points, so he will have 2000 points come off his tally after wimbledon and then however well he does this year will determine how many points he gets back.

nadal however did not play last year so he will have 0 points coming off his total after the tournament and every match he wins he actually gains points for his total.

basically the best federer can hope for is to win wimbledon and keep his 2000 points, leaving him on 8525.

nadal is on 8745, so if he goes out in round 1 he will be on 8755 and fed will have a real chance at getting #1 back.

realistically though, nadal will go far in the tournament, and increase the gap on federer so it will be tough for fed to regain #1.

but then there a few masters 1000 events coming up where federer has lots of points to gain because he did so poorly in them last year, like at the rogers cup or paris.

he could also get a lot of points at the US open and world tour finals, but even if federer does really well in the next few months it would take a few bad results from nadal for federer to overtake him.

:):):)

I am a big tennis fan and I watch some great Wimbledon finals like Sampras vs Agassi in 1999 but this was just the greatest! I can't believe you missed the second set that was phenomenal. Rafa was 4-1 down and won five games on the bounce to take the set 6-4. I am glad Rafa won it.

With the seeming statistical improbability for Federer to gain more ranking points than Nadal, all that is left for Federer to do is win more tournaments and tighten his grip on the top ranking in the money charts for total earnings by tennis players!

2 POINTS!!!