Who wins the Arc on Sunday at Longchamp, and Other G1's?

In The Qatar Prix Du Cadran, Blek has all the obvious form for the winner of this race however he is currently untested over 2m4f and with a disapointing run into 3rd last time I would look elsewhere. Kasbah Bliss is an old favourite who was thought to be a good hurdler and can easily get this long distance and the soft going will only help his cause however a long losing streak and ground to make up with the favourite (Blek) 5/2 seems far too short a price to back him at. Therfore I turn my attention to the Gerald Mosse partnered GENTOO. Although the furthest he has been tried at has been over 2m, his promising running on efforts over sundays soft going suggests that all could be in his favour. The trainer has been keen to continuosly up the distance after he keeps finding more and his only defeats this season have been leaving him a close second. Therefore 5/1 seems a good price for an improving horse who has yet to finish unplaced in 9 carear starts and trying it for the first time at this group.

In the Prix De l'Abbaye I think Bluster is far too big a price at 40/1 for a horse who has magnificent form over soft and was not far touched of a win behind Swiss Diva last time out at Longchampre. He should be worth an each way shout with no mucking about with William Buick on board. Total Gallery hasn't been hiself this season and form has been well behind what it was last year and a repeat victory after winless scince this race is unlikly. Therfore I move onto the consistent Prohobit who has won on both Good to Soft and Good to Firm and whith many wins over 6f will ebnefit hit on this going. He has very speady form which he will need for this race and Jamie Spencer will be looking to hold him up and take the leaders hopefully late on. The classy Merchand Dor is a mere shadow of his former self and has shown it with much ground to make up with others and although Mick Channon has booked Gerald Mosse for the ride on his Mister Hughie, his unconsistent form in much worse company will have him needing to find too much in this group (especially with his form over Good to Firm). War Artist seems to want more than this and Good to Firm os his foreplay and Meydan form horses whould be left alone. Prime Defender and Judge And Jury are out of their depth and Lady Of The Desert definantly has the form but a doubt over the speed with no win over 5f scince his first carear start and other have more speedy tipes on offer. The same for Rose Blossom and Piccadilly Filly and Gilt Edged Girl have all flopped in better company than what they won in. So for the winner I turn to the most impressive AMICO FRITZ who has won twice recently in France over a fast 5f in soft and the only run in England in the hotly contested Golden Jubilee where he came a good 5th of 24 and with all the speed behind him 20/1 is far too big.

Unfortunatly as I rule I stay away from all 2yr old races however I would bet on the classy favourite HELLEBORINE in the Prix Marcel Bousac and maybe each way on the Gosden trained Rainbow Springs who is well bred and wouldn't be there without a chance with only a placed effort on his only chance. 16/1 seems a good price.

For the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere I would say go for the Richard Hannon trained KING TORUS who can shake it at this level whereas Wooton Basset does not strike as a group horse and Moonlight Cloud is beatable on this going.

The Prix De La Foret is fairly straight forward with GOLDIKOVA looking to make up for an unfortunate second to an imrpving Fuisse last time out but that horse isn't there and Paco Boy has yet to finish in front of Goldikova. However 9/4 is too short for an out of form great and therefore an each way bet on the dual guineas herroin Special Duty who has to overcome a disapointing run last time and hopefully France will bring out the best of the 16/1 shot with the ground in her favour.

The Prox De l'Arc de Triomphe is between CAPE BLANCO and BEHKABAD with each way punts on Plumania and Workforce (for a longer asnwer check my last best answer)

Finally for the Prix De l'Opera your guess is as good as mine however I would have a bet on the improving and speedy NOURIYA for Sir Michael Stoute and the boys back home.

Hi Kezza...some interesting thoughts on the racing across the Channel tomorrow :)

Just back from Newmarket where Credit Swap saved what would have been a blank day for me, he only ran on Thursday and was pulling his Stable Lads arm out in the paddock just came too late that day but made up for it today.

Back later with some choices..Jac x

Edit:

Thanks Sir Alan and well done to you too with Sahpresa (great nap) you were spot on about the jockey booking :) ..lets hope you will be able to write a cheque for more than 100 million after todays racing!!!!

My Choices for Longchamp:-

Prix de L'Abbaye - LADY OF THE DESERT

Each way on Prohibit

Swiss Diva the obvious danger, great

race in prospect

Prix Jean-Luc - WOOTON BASSET danger King Torus

Quatar Prix de la Foret

PACO BOY will not mind the soft going

last two races can be forgiven.

L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE

YOUMZAIN to spring a surprise and gain this much eluded Group Victory, 2nd to Sea the Stars last year is good enough for me and although his last win was 2 years ago he does have form on Soft ground.

Good luck Kezza and Sir Alan..best weekends racing of the year...Jac x

Well done with Credit Swap Jac!

Fantastic day's racing tomorrow:

Cadran: Kasbah Bliss

L'Abbaye: Swiss Diva

Boussac: Helleborine

Gran Criterium: Moonlight Cloud

Foret: Dick Turpin

Arc: Behkabad

Opera: Stacelita, my nap of the day.

Can't understand why they're putting a silly Arab race in the middle of such a top-class card. The Arc used to be the last race of the day, and that's the way they should keep it.