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Veritatum17 asked in Social ScienceEconomics · 1 decade ago

Is there a metals bubble?

A year ago, silver was $17/troy oz. In December it was $25/troy oz. Today, it's $46/troy oz, and if you calculate the per troy ounce price from online mints it's between $65 and $70/troy oz, before shipping.

Is there sufficient industrial demand to support this price level, especially considering that increased price may encourage relatively less expensive or more chemically preferable alternatives? Is demand from speculation and fear about inflation sufficient? Or will this come crashing back down to $12 to $15/troy oz when political events stabilize?

What do you think?

3 Answers

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  • Dave B
    Lv 6
    1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    If you think anything in the commodities marketplace right now is demand based, think again. Speculators have caught on to the idea that they can get 95% plus margin and control their own markets.

    Direct answer is yes there is a bubble, and some major players are depending on getting bailed out when it pops. Again. My vote is to let the non manufacturing companies fail. But we still have the too big to let fall mentality going on. I suggested that once, and lived to regret it because everyone and their cousin all of a sudden wanted government largesse.

  • SDD
    Lv 7
    1 decade ago

    The definition of a bubble is when the price of something rises faster than the intrinsic demand for it. That's exactly what's happening with precious metals. They are being driven by the expectation that they will continue to rise. Obviously the key question is when that bubble will burst. Nobody knows that. After Bob Shiller made his famous comment about "irrational exuberance" in the stock market, the market continued to rise for almost 4 years. He recognized a bubble, but not when it would burst. I can guarantee you that silver is in a bubble; I can't tell you how much longer that bubble will continue to grow.

  • 1 decade ago

    As you said, there is constantly increasing demand for silver and other valuable metals, because the people who have some economic overview are starting to trust "money" less and less and are looking for alternative means of protecting their money.. Those commodities will continue to rise in price in future even more, because even if a majority of people don't want to acknowledge it, current economy is not so far from free-fall descent.

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