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Probability question?
Hint given: The answer is very unintuitive
The problem:
A woman has two children. One is a girl born in April. What is the probability she has 2 girls?
Things to note:
We assume the probability of having a girl is equal to that of a boy, 50%.
We assume the probability of having a child on one day of the year is equal to the probability on any other day (that is 1/365, see below).
It is not leap year, we are assuming 365 days this year.
Last hint: The fact that the month is mentioned at all IS relevant.
Another hint:
The answer is not 50%. It is slightly, but strictly less.
1 Answer
- NoneLv 710 years agoFavorite Answer
Since one girl was born in April, the other child was born in a different year (assuming they are not twins). Independent probability of female child = 50%
Probability that both children are girls is 50%
