Severe Weather??????

The system that just went through the Pacific Northwest and Northern California is the system that is projected by the computer forecast models to bring the severe weather in your area on Monday.

I have been a weather forecaster for about 25 years and I can tell you from experience that even with the advancement we have made, it is still very difficult most of the time to pinpoint an area that will get severe weather. With severe weather, all the ingredients must be there for it to occur. Sometimes,the forecast can be off just slightly and no severe weather will occur.

In my opinion, in the past, forecaster would only give very general outlook for severe weather for any forecast past two days in advance because the uncertainty was so great. Computer models have improved greatly and the forecast are much better since I had started forecasting. And this has resulted in the public and users to demand for more precised forecast products. This maybe okay with just a regular forecast. However, when you are dealing with severe weather, lives may depend on your forecast.

As a forecaster, you would want to let the users know about your concerns about the forecast that you had just made. This can be done in the past by how you would word your forecasts. That is no longer the case as the computers have taken over most of the forecast products generated today.

And because of this, it can be very stressful for a forecaster who knows that certain weather pattern or conditions may exits that will make a forecast much more difficult to forecast, but you still must make the forecast even with this higher than normal uncertainty exits. And like all other weather forecaster, we don't like to be wrong. Especially when dealing with severe weather. And this is one of those cases.

The situation is that if the models are correct, there will be a higher chance than normal for severe weather will occur with this system. And the current forecast reflects this based on the latest computer model run. However, forecasters recognized that this pattern that we are seeing, based on pass experience, models tend to have trouble forecasting the speed when ever this pattern develops.

So what they are trying to tell you is that confidence is high enough for them to believe that the system that just enter the west coast will have relatively higher than normal chance of producing severe weather once it makes it out to the Midwest. For that reason, there should be some type of severe weather forecast for this system to get the public alerted to this possibility. But the forecaster knows that based on past history, this system will be difficult to time. And if the timing is off, there will be a higher chance that the location will be off too.

So by telling you that they are not sure of the timing and speed, they want you to monitor the forecast closely as changes to the forecast are likely.

So if you are in the area that may be in the path of this storm, it is wise that you check the forecast more often for changes. The last thing a forecaster wants to hear is that somebody read the forecast on Saturday and decided to change his plans and have the activity on Sunday. Then never did check for updates and missed the updated forecast that speeds up the timing of the severe weather. And like most forecasters, they would never want to hear that his whole family was killed because the user had changed his plans based on the severe weather forecast on Friday.

So to answer your question. You are in the area of where the current forecast is that severe weather is expected to develop with this system. But you should also monitor for changes as the timing of this system is where the uncertainty is the highest. The meteorologist is trying make sure you know that this change is likely by telling you that this uncertainty exits. If you don't check for updates, you may end putting you in a hazardous position by staying with the old forecast. So you should be concern.

I hope this answers your question about why a forecaster would want you to know that significant uncertainty exists in his severe weather forecast.

I'm just checking over the Storm Prediction Center (the big guys who determine the chances for severe weather) and they don't appear to be showing much of a threat. However, due to model differences, I would continue to watch this.

This is because they are still uncertain about how fast the West Coast Storm will move into the plains. It has a lot to do with the timing of the storm.

i'd could say that i do take excitement in intense climate, however I relatively have by no potential experienced something like a twister or hurricane. i like extensive thunder storms as properly as blizzards on account that i come across them to be actually pleasing.