Do you think this is possible???

It now looks like on Saturday a Significant Tornado Outbreak is expected. If the Outlook was Day 1 or Day 2 it would be a High Risk. Here is the SPC Outlook

SPC AC 120734

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0234 AM CDT THU APR 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA

AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS

VALLEY...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY

LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH

D3/SAT...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS

THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY

MIDLEVEL WIND EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM THROUGH OK/KS INTO THE UPPER MS

VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE

LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING D2/FRI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF

THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING ON SAT...REACHING CO/NM BY 12Z

SUNDAY. AN ATTENDANT 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET WILL EMERGE INTO THE SRN

HIGH PLAINS TO KS SAT NIGHT...WITH 60-80 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS

EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THROUGH

THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD FROM THE UPPER

MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS

BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NEB. A LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO

DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD

THROUGH SRN NEB TO SRN IA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE

UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT. A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EWD SOME BY SAT

AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN NEB SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL

KS TO FAR WRN OK TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH

SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER FALLS FORECAST FOR SAT

EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SRN AND

CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN

MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF THE DRY LINE ON SAT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS

IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND REACHING CENTRAL/ERN

KS BY SAT EVENING. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY

LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE

2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON

AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND

FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK

SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS

COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT

TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS

SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING

FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.

...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL/SWRN-SRN WI...

STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH D3

COMBINED WITH MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AS A WARM FRONT

ADVANCES NNEWD SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY

FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE

RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER..A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED

IN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SWD

MOVING FRONT AND INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP MOIST

CONVECTION/TSTMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF

40-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE

WEATHER POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE

WARM FRONT AND ALSO WWD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE WARM

FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

..PETERS.. 04/12/2012

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