When will the fraction of climate change deniers in the general population fall to 2%?

Even in the U.S. I think you'd find that most people believe that the climate is currently changing, but lots of people prefer to believe it is natural. That seems to be the stance of the Republican Party, but that may change after the shellacking they just took.

The question is not whether climate is changing, but how big is man's contribution to that, and how fast is it happening? I think public opinion depends mostly on how the weather has been recently--after a big storm like Sandy or an extra hot summer more people believe in AGW, after a "Snowmageddon" storm then fewer people believe it. Neither viewpoint is well-informed.

Rational public opinion will have to wait until the populace is better educated in physics, mathematics and logic.

I agree with Jeff M, Yahoo answers is not representative of the general public. It seems that many here are only denying AGW because they are worried something has to be done about it in their lifetimes, costing them money and/or their extremist religious views. Their comments have nothing to do with the science.

Then we have BB who plays passive aggressive when he writes "On this board, believing in climate change due to natural climate variation, labels one a 'denier'." Absolutely as denying that increasing the level of CO2 in the atmosphere by 40% does not affect the heat retention capabilities of the atmosphere makes one an (AGW) denier. Using the holocaust denier analogy, it is akin to saying "the Jews, gypsies, homosexuals in the concentration camps died from old age, not because they were starved, gassed or shot."

Jim Z starts of with an ad hominem, followed by stating the obvious (that climate has changed before) followed by another ad hominem and that is just in the first paragraph. And I can only agree with Baccheus's assessment of Jim Z's answer.

I find it interesting why people don't accept the sciences, like AGW, or evolution, yet accept there is a god when there is absolutely no scientific evidence. I do find it interesting that Canadians overwhelmingly agree AGW is happening, while only 42% of Americans do. But I can only guess WHEN the fraction of AGW deniers in the general population fall to 11% or GW deniers to 2%. However I can say that this will not happen because people understand the science, it will happen because of weather events making the news like super storms and record droughts.

Anybody who does not believe that climate changes obviously has never heard of the Ice Age.. That said it is important to understand the factors that contribute to climate change.

Since about 1960 when the first nuclear plants were built we have had "new heat" put into the environment from the destruction of matter via controlled nuclear reactions. With the increase in nuclear plants around the world this factor becomes increasingly significant.

The picture on the website of the ice breaking up, is not so much due to global warming as to hot springs in the Artic Ocean, as reported in a NOAA report in 2003.

The water is rising in the ocean because the temperature is rising, this expands the water as it warms in accord with the coefficient of expansion of water at a given temperature.

The increasing carbon dioxide levels should be offset by increase in trees and other plants growth to absorb the carbon dioxide from the air. Instead acid rain caused by burning coal that contains sulfur, producing sulfur dioxide, thence acid raid, which kills trees and plants is responsible for thee increase in carbon dioxide in the air. Sulfur dioxide and acid rain interfere with the Carbon Cycle.

In addition to all these factors there has been a general trend toward increased solar activity in the past hundred years.

If you want to check on this compare the temperatures when a solar flare or storm occurs on the sun with the temperatures before this event happened. The effects are not felt on Planet Earth until about three of four days after the start of such an event, so there is some lag time from happening to effects on our planet.

As the effects of climate change become more and more obvious there will be fewer people who will say that there is no problem. The important thing is recogise and identify the factors--all of them--so we can have a comprehensive understanding of climate dynamics, how they affect our planet and what we can do about it so that all can benefit.

53% of America adults know how long it takes for the Earth to revolve around the Sun.

59% of America adults know that the earliest humans and dinosaurs did not live at the same time.

47% of America adults can roughly approximate the percent of the Earth's surface that is covered with water.

And only 21% of America adults know all three.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/09031...

Don't hold your breath.

I was listening to a David Brooks interview earlier today in which he invoked a somewhat esoteric phrase; epistemic closure.

This phrase describes a state in which a person closes themselves off to outside information in an effort to continue believing that which the wish to believe.

So in answer to your question, in the US, it will drop to 2% when this reality of the human condition ceases to exist.

It's surprising that only 9% believe that the climate change is completely natural. Oddly on Y!A that number jumps to about 25% or so. Then we have those that believe we don't know enough to determine if climate change is natural or man-made on Y!A and that number jumps to about 40% or 50%. It seems like they all congregate here to try and get their failed points across.

Edit: Once again JimZ is arguing from ignorance. "The climate has changed before therefor man has no effect on current climate." Yet when you point out that that is what he is saying he goes off the deep end and accusations start flying.

JimZ just claimed that all of the National Academy of Science, the collection of the greatest scientist in America are "complete imbeciles". According to JimZ, the greatest scientific minds in America are "stupid silly dolts".

I agree with JimZ at least this far: Either all of America's greatest scientific minds are imbeciles or JimZ is an imbecile. It must be one or the other.

There are more the 2% of America that is like JimZ, opposed to science and scientists, and willing to call our greatest minds "imbeciles" just because they ignore science and distrust people who are actually engaged in the scientific process.

I'm surprised it's that large, is scientific illiteracy really so bad?

When Phoenix's math meets JimZ's geology and they dance through Billy's Hollow Moon matrix to be downsized by a factor equal to the ratio of Maax's to Trevor's IQ.

Per your link:

"Nine percent believe climate change is occurring due to natural climate variation.

Two percent said they don't believe climate change is occurring at all.

On this board, believing in climate change due to natural climate variation, labels one a 'denier'.

So that would be 11 percent of Canadians. .

ADD: Wow!!! The mutual admiration society of Thumb-switchers is out in full force today. Way to keep an open mind!!.......NOT!