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Is there a stock index that follows world exports?

Similar to indexes like DOW and S&P, but it follows world exports? If not, are there any funds that perform a similar function?

3 Answers

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  • 8 years ago
    Favorite Answer

    I will expand a bit on @Jerry's answer as I think he is correct about the Baltic Dry Index [BDI] being a world wide index on the movements of raw commodities (dry bulk carriers)...not finished goods as I understand it. It is not the only index of this type.

    The HARPEX index tracks the movement of Container ships..so between the two of them you have most of the sea traffic covered. Unfortunately the HARPEX index does not currently reside on most charting services, though you can find it at this link

    http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexVP.do

    here is a WIKI link that describes the BDI index in some detail

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

    There is some controversy as to which index is better for estimating the economy. However to my thinking you are comparing apples/oranges. The BDI tracks Bulk carriers of raw commodities and the HARPEX tracks container ships (finished goods)...I would expect the HARPEX index to lag behind the BDI in a recovery of the economy.

    The idea of the Baltic Dry index is that if the index rises then the cost of shipping raw commodities like coal and iron ore is rising...why is this important? Well, if the cost of shipping these goods is on the rise this means there is an increased demand for these commodities...which means that manufacturing of saleable goods is on the increase..to be reflected in an increase in the HARPEX (at least I am thinking that way (I have put in a request to Stockcharts.com to see if they will add the HARPEX to their stable of charts)

    It is thought these indices are barometers of the economy. They areNOT a tradeable indices however, there are EFT's that are based on Shipping...For example DB Commodities Tracking ETF [ NYSE:DBC] or Guggenheim Shipping ETF [NYSE: SEA]

    I found this chart interesting

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BDI&p=D&st=2006-...

    This shows the BDI compared to The SPX 500, DBC and the TSX

    Canada's stock exchanges are heavily weighted to the commodities...wheat, lumber, fishing, mining and Oil&Gas...we have other sectors as well but not to the degree of the USA. The USA on the other hand is more financial/hi-tech/manufacturing oriented.

    And you can see this in this chart above

    See how there were signs of collapse in the S&P starting at the end of 2007....The TSX did not start a decline until late June 2008...the DBC monitoring commodity shipping started to fall in early July.

    There was a dip in the TSX that parallels the dip and rise of the BDI but not greatly...but to my mind For Canadians it makes sense to track the DBC

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BDI&p=D&st=2010-...

    Here is the same chart based on the last 3 years....see how the TSX tracks the BDI and DBC quite well and the S&P 500 does NOT AT ALL...The American stock market is marching to a different drummer, called "Quantitative Easing" I suppose.

    You can draw your own conclusions but I find this VERY INTERESTING myself

    Guggenheim Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA ) is an EFT that tracks the Dow Jones Global Shipping Index. This is relatively new and does not have pre-2008 crash data but here is the most recent

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BDI&p=D&st=2010-...

    As you can see the SEA ETF tracks the BDI much better than the DBC and is even more contrarian to the S&P 500

    One has to wonder what that says about the future of the US economy.....

  • 4 years ago

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  • Jerry
    Lv 7
    8 years ago

    The "Baltic Dry" index might be useful.

    It is a measure of shipping costs that serves fairly well as a proxy for world economic activity.

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