Who will win the DERBY?

For David: Although there's no doubt Dawn Approach is by far the best horse; there's a good chance he won't stay. The sire is New Approach who won the Derby back in 2008 but let's not forget he was only entered by mistake and nobody thought he would stay either. Ok, he won but never ran 12 furlongs again and only edged out Tartan Bearer by half a length. I don't know much about New Approach's dam (Park Express) but the dam sire was a Stewards Cup winner and a consistent sprinter. In terms of Dawn Approach's dam (Hymn Of The Dawn), well she never won any of her 5 races between 2001/02 when trained by Jim Bolger and it should be noted that her best run came on debut when 4th in a 6 furlong maiden. She did stretch to a mile on her 4th run but only beat 2 home. To further this, Hymn Of The Dawn's sire was the US sprinter Phone Trick which isn't encouraging and the dam was Colonial Debut and her best form came at a mile. So Dawn Approach is bred to be a t

... top miler and not further. I think you could do worse than back Chopin each-way. He's been described as the best 3 year old in Germany and has some assured stamina. The sire (Santiago) had form on soft ground and very good form between 8 and 10 furlongs. His sire (Highest Honour) was bred to be best at a little over 10 furlongs to boot. Chopin's dam was an ex-French trained mare who went to John Hills in 2007 and won a 13 furlong Lingfield maiden and a 12 furlong Brighton handicap from 6 runs for him. Not the best form, yes, but she was by Galileo and a dam who retired a maiden after 2 runs but both over a mile and she herself was sired US group 1 winner Gulch. I also like Ruler Of The World. I've been impressed by both his runs and takes a lot after his sire Galileo. The dam was half-decent miler who herself was by Kingmambo. Dawn Approach could and perhaps should win but there are enough doubts/negatives for me to avoid getting too involved in the race.