I am concerned about the Ebola virus coming to the United States. What are the chances of person to person infection in the US?

"What are the chances of person to person infection in the US?"

I think people should stay calm...as scary as this outbreak is, it does help to have some perspective.

Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone are three of the poorest nations on the planet. Two of them are less than 20 years removed from devastating civil wars, and all of them are so impoverished that bush meat, sanitation standards and even funeral rights, all alleged to be factors in this outbreak, are things they don't have in common with us.

And even in that environment, where this outbreak is so frightening, there are 21,000,000 people and fewer than 1,500 cases. If we assume that this outbreak will wind up four times larger, that amounts to an infection rate of fewer than 3 per 1,000 people.

If you need another example to consider, look at the outbreak of Ebola's cousin Marburg, which occurred in Germany and Yugoslavia in 1967, and causes a very similar hemorrhagic fever that in a clinical setting is indistinguishable from Ebola. The vector in that Marburg outbreak was infected monkeys imported for research purposes.

The outbreak was first seen in Marburg, a town in West Germany, along with densely populated cities like Frankfurt, West Germany and Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In that outbreak, in spite of the population density of two of the cities, the outbreak was contained and 31 people became ill, of whom 7 died. That was almost 50 years ago, and our health screening standards and ability to communicate critical health information has only improved since then.

Ebola and Marburg, along with other hemorrhagic fever diseases, can be passed along from person to person...but the reason relatives and health care workers tend to be at the greatest risk is because when people become infectious, it is in the late stages of the illness...and as a result, those who are sick are not up and about, interacting with people.

As a result, it is exceedingly unlikely bordering on negligible that, in a modern Western nation, an Ebola outbreak would last long. This viral infection burns out VERY quickly when modern medical standards and proper precautions are taken.

Theres a50/50 chance of getting this disease.