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If I flip a coin 256 times, what are the odds of getting at least 162 of the same result?

2 Answers

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  • xyzzy
    Lv 7
    5 years ago

    For a small number of flips I would say use the binomial distribution, which is easy enough to do with a computer but not so easy to do by hand.

    As the number of flips increases, the binomal distribution starts to resemble the normal distribution.

    mean = 0.5 * n = 128

    variance = (p)(1-p) * n

    = 0.25 n

    standard deviation = sqrt (variance) = 0.5 sqrt n

    = 8

    162 - 128 = 34

    34 / 8 = 4.25 standard deviations.

    "the same result" could be 162 + heads or 162 tails.

    2 P(x>4.25 SD) is effectively 0. (0.002%)

    if it happened, it is a sufficiently rare anomaly that you should question your assumptions. The coin loaded, or the coin flipper has some skill in flipping coins, or the count is not correct.

  • ?
    Lv 4
    5 years ago

    50/50

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