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Could you help me correct this expected value problem? Got it wrong?
Digitalis is a technology company that makes high-end computer processors. Their newest processor, the luteA, is going to be sold directly to the public. The processor is to be sold for $3600, making Digitalis a profit of $396. Unfortunately there was a manufacturing flaw, and some of these luteA processors are defective and cannot be repaired. On these defective processors, Digitalis is going to give the customer a full refund.
Suppose that for each luteA there is an 11% chance that it is defective and an 89% chance that it is not defective.
If Digitalis knows it will sell many of these processors, should it expect to make or lose money from selling them? How much?
4 Answers
- PuzzlingLv 72 months ago
As I see it, the cost to make the computer processor is $3204, so when it is sold, they make a profit of $396.
3600 - 396 = 3204
If it is defective, they had to spend $3204 to make a processor, but they got no money since they refunded everything.
So:
11% of the time they lose $3204.
89% of the time they make a profit of $396.
E(X) = (0.11 * -3204) + (0.89 * 396)
E(X) = -352.44 + 352.44
E(X) = 0
So basically they are going to make no money. Every bit of profit they would have made on the 89% that are good will go to pay for the 11% that are returned.
Answer:
(c) They will neither make nor lose any money.
EDIT:
I think you said they would lose $3600 if a processor was refunded, but that's the marked up price (including profit). The only loss is the *cost* of making the processor ($3204).
- Jeff AaronLv 72 months ago
Manufacturing a processor costs $3600 - $396 = $3204
So if the processor is defective, they lose $3204, and if it's not, they profit $396
Net profit: (11/100)(-3204) + (89/100)(396) = -352.44 + 352.44 = 0
They will break even.