Jeff

One point upon which AGW advocates and contrarions seem to agree is that atmospheric CO2 is a well-mixed gas. Janne Hakkarainen, a researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute and co-author of the study that used OCO-2 data to make satellite-based maps of human emissions of carbon dioxide, wrote: “Carbon dioxide is indeed well mixed in the atmosphere. This means that if we look at the CO2 concentrations globally, the value is about 400 ppm everywhere.” [See https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatte... Therefore, we would expect that the concentration of CO2 varies slowly and smoothly over both location and time. This being the case, the CO2 "control knob" effect (or equivalently the Clausius-Clapeyron equation) would constrain H2O vapor to also be well-mixed and slowly varying over location and time. Specifically, it is a mere amplification of the CO2 Greenhouse warming [See Yale Climate Collections: The Water Vapor Feedback: www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2008/02/common-climate-misconceptions-the-water-vapor-feedback-2/, SkepticalScience: skepticalscience.com/water-vapor-greenhouse-gas.htm].

As I believe we all know, the earth experiences warming and cooling trends with numerous factors driving them. Merely monitoring the GMST only tells us if the earth is absorbing heat energy at a rate faster than it is radiating such energy. It provides no information on what might be causing this heating or cooling. One factor that may be causing some warming, however, is the CO2 greenhouse effect. To determine if this effect is in fact causing significant greenhouse warming, we must examine the surface temperature profile over the entire earth and see if it matches the type of temperature profile we would expect from such warming.

We first note that since CO2 is a non-condensible gas, its molecules have very long atmospheric residence times. Therefore, these molecules are much more widely and evenly spaced throughout the atmosphere than H2O vapor. This means that CO2 emissions from one nation could affect other nations thousands of miles away. In fact, this is the basis of the claim made by many in the AGW community that we need international treaties to control carbon emissions.

But are we observing such spatial temperature variation over the surface of the earth? NO -- NOT AT ALL!! Instead, we are seeing some parts of the globe experiencing record high temperatures and other parts experiencing record low temperatures. This is definitely inconsistent with the notion that the CO2 greenhouse effect is the main cause of any global warming.