What is your opinion of the latest electoral college updates?
Excerpts:
For the first time this year John McCain has taken the lead in the electoral college, albeit by 2 EVs. Today's configuration shows McCain ahead in all the swing states except Colorado. This means he can't afford to lose any of Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, all of which could go either way. Today might later be remembered as the beginning of the end for Obama, or just a blip. Obama now has 268 EVs. In 2004, John Kerry had 273 on this date. However, there is still a long way to go. The debates will be even more important than usual this year.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Your responses are looked forward to. Thanks!
Is it Friday yet??2008-09-12T10:10:24Z
Favorite Answer
I think it clearly shows Obama has lost momentum..at least for now. The timing of Palin's choice is perhaps even more important than how she has rallied the conservative base because there is only a small window of opportunity for Team Obama to discredit her before the election. Right now McCain/Palin are riding a train of momentum that is gaining speed and Obama will have a very difficult time stopping them prior to election day.
I think it's a simple blip... realistically McCain would have to win so many swing states that I don't think it will happen. McCain would need a 'perfect storm' in order to win and that is obviously highly unlikely. Right now McCain is shown ahead by one point in Nevada and 2 points in New Mexico... he'd need both of them to win and I would bet a lot that they won't both go red.
I think the only real shot McCain has of winning is tipping one fairly 'big' state his way (i.e. Michigan or Pennsylvania). Both have gone blue in the last four elections and I think the ecomonic issues will resonate more with voters there than anything else- advantage Obama.
No matter how hard the democrats want to avoid the truth, it's continues to show up all over the place. Sarah Palin has helped McCain, and their continued attacks to smear her are doing the exact opposite. That they continue on this destructive path, only assures that John McCain will win. We are still far from the finish line as you suggested, but unless the democrats change their strategy, which is unlikely, this is just the beginning of the end for them.
My thoughts are that the New Mexico poll is an outlier. I wonder if more polls will come out painting it the same way. Nothing is unexpected for the rest of them IMO. Keep in mind this same map sometimes has Obama winning Montana so it's not really 100% trustworthy, I try to stick with 538
I don't get interested into the electoral college till 1 week away from the elections. Especially because of swing states. Too nerve racking for me right now. LOL