What evidence is there that shows an increase in extreme events or their intensity due to AGW globally?

2011-01-18T01:13:21Z

Gringo - I looked over your links. They were interesting but by the sounds of things the jury is still kind of out on various things about hurricanes (such as increased frequency). There does seem to be increasing evidence which is mounting but it seems like more data is needed.

2011-01-18T20:45:51Z

Dana - I felt that your links didn't really address what I was after for the most part. There was only one I thought was useful. I'll respond to all of your links you provided to show what I'm getting at:

- This first one at http://server.iii.org/yy_obj_data/binary/814334_1_0/Trenberth.pdf was talking about how there was evidence to show that Global Warming can have effects on precipitation and heavy rains. While that may be the case, I want trends proving that Global Warming is increasing extreme events.

- This next link is one of the useful ones supplied. I'll try to be brief in my discussion of it. http://www.nersc.no/~dagjs/rcourse_nzu/Papers/easterling_etal_climateextremes_science_2000.pdf Unfortunately, there is quite a bit of information which doesn't help answer my question (I didn't want things like the potential effects in the future or impacts on the United States for example) but there is details about global trends (such as precipitation and temperature). In the end, th

2011-01-18T20:47:18Z

In the end, there is LOTS of details and background which need to be looked into. It's pretty complicated with the amount of references and whatnot so I can't really expand on my thoughts right now. I'll say that I was more interested in seeing whether events like tsunamis, tornados and so on are on the rise because of AGW....

- Continuing on at http://eande.lbl.gov/EMills/PUBS/PDF/Crops_GEC.pdf shows a simulation like what could happen with lots of soil moisture and it's effects on plants. The focus is just on the United States and again doesn't address my question. I want to see trends showing an increase of extreme events or their intensity because of Global Warming.

- The next document at http://www.knmi.nl/publications/fulltexts/global_extremes_for_jgr.pdf is kind of redundant really. It's like the second link but seems to focus just on temperature and precipitation. It's still interesting though.

- The final study (http://www.bvsde.paho.org/bvsacd/cd63/rosenzweig2001.pdf) is a

2011-01-18T20:48:22Z

*again only something talking about the US. It has details about what implications there COULD be when it comes to things such as food production which means this again doesn't address the question I asked.

2011-01-18T20:52:37Z

Baccehus - That's the impression I seem to get. It sounds like the extreme events and so on are what they expect to happen...

2011-01-18T20:55:08Z

MTRstudent - That isn't a global trend averaged out though. That's kind of what I wanted to see. Something to show if there was indeed an increase in these events as it has been claimed.

2011-01-18T20:55:57Z

Mark - I'll watch the video later.

2011-01-18T20:57:34Z

Jim Z - You're answer was pretty pointless really...

2011-01-18T20:58:39Z

*Your

Wrong spelling lol

2011-01-19T18:30:03Z

Just a note that I'm still reading through all the links in this question thoroughly.

Baccheus2011-01-17T00:38:57Z

Favorite Answer

I think there is none yet. The most extreme events are only within the past six months. The most devastating floods in history prior to last year covered 90 SQK. The floods in Pakistan covered more then twice that. And the current floods in Australia covered 10x that. There might never have been floods as extensive as the Pakistan floods, and yet flooding 5x worse comes just months later.

Within the next two years there will be published studies testing the association between the warmest global temperatures ever recorded for a year and the extreme event that happened in that year:

* the greatest flooding ever recorded, in Australia
* the greatest flooding ever recorded (until 5 months later when the record was broken.

There is no proof. There is merely the curious incidence of scientists warning of more flooding followed by the worst flooding ever seen.

11

Gringo2011-01-17T03:43:49Z

A 2005 National Geographic articles states:

"a new study in the journal Nature found that hurricanes and typhoons have become stronger and longer-lasting over the past 30 years. These upswings correlate with a rise in sea surface temperatures." (1)

A more recent (2008) article in Time mentions a newer study on the same issue:

"Researchers led by James Elsner, a meteorologist at Florida State University, analyzed satellite-derived data of tropical storms since 1981 and found that the maximum wind speeds of the strongest storms have increased significantly in the years since, with the most notable increases found in the North Atlantic and the northern Indian oceans. They believe that rising ocean temperatures — due to global warming — are one of the main causes behind that change." (2)

As always, Skepticalscience.com has good info on the issue: http://www.skepticalscience.com/hurricanes-global-warming.htm

PS Limited my search to hurricanes for now. It's a bit late where I am :-)

Edit Jim Z:

If you are so knowledgeable about proper scientific research and procedures, as you pretend to be here on YA, then how come you hardly ever back up any of your denier claims with evidence? Is it perhaps because you realize all too well that 99,9% of "denier science" is BS (bad science)?

94

MTRstudent2011-01-17T09:11:30Z

India:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/314/5804/1442.abstract

Northern UK increased, but southern (the drier bit) seeing no major changes:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.943/abstract

China has seen flat total rainfall, but increase in intense rainfall events:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-3318.1

Much of SE Asia and the S Pacific has seen an increase in the proportion of rainfall coming in 'extreme' events, even if the total rainfall has fallen:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.610/abstract

United States:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%281999%29012%3C2515%3ALTTIEP%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Increasing over the 20th century, but only recently more intense than earlier.

11

puddin2011-01-17T02:53:10Z

The continuing exposure of hectares of land in the Northern Hemisphere concerns me. Whether we are the cause I doubt that. I think you could include the polar bears and penguins, as evidence. Is it getting too warm where bees winter and is that allowing the growth of the germs that are killing them off? Time will tell.

03

Dana19812011-01-17T04:53:02Z

Ask and ye shall receive.

*edit* you just have to love jim. He complains about Gringo's answer, which references a peer-reviewed study in one of the world's most prestigious scientific journals, while jim himself gives nothing but his own ignorant opinions.

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