Let's use the heating element on the stove as an analog for the sun. The temperature of the water will respond to changes in heat output from the element (sun) right?
What does putting a lid on the pot of water do to the temperature of the water and the rate of change?
...and what does the lid provide an ample analogy for?
So is the stove element (the sun) 100% driving temperature changes and the rate of change?
2012-09-07T10:28:11Z
So, Peter, an alleged lack of refined understanding makes the lid not affect the system? BTW, I would argue that the real life analog for the lid has been understood since the mid-1800's.
2012-09-07T10:37:16Z
Jeff and Jim - I in no way stated the lid was 100% CO2, this is an exercise in understanding that while the sun may be responsible for all heat put into the system, the rate at which it leaves the system (and thus total energy in the system) is affect by other factors.
ChemFlunky2012-09-07T13:11:34Z
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The only perfect analogy for a thing is the thing itself. That said, good analogy. Makes sense to me... (it can join my biological carbon cycle fountain)
edit: Gryph, I refer back to "the only perfect analogy for a thing is the thing itself". David's trying to counter "Well, how can CO2 be changing the Earth's temperature, when all the energy comes from the sun?", while leaving it at a level (and with an analogy) that can be understood by the kinds of people who'd think that...
Well I have two answers for you. Here is the first one:
The reason a pot of water boils faster with the lid on is that the heat escapes less quickly due to the reduced convection and the condensation of the water vapor on the lid which releases energy back into the system. The analogy for reduced convection is a glass greenhouse or car parked in the Sun with the windows rolled up. The analogy for water vapor condensing would be precipitation although I'm not sure what in the physical world the lid would represent (maybe an atmospheric inversion layer or a frontal system?).
The second answer is to picture the water as the oceans and the Sun slowly heating the surface of the ocean (i.e. the bottom of the pot). So the lid would be the bottom of the ocean. What usefulness that analogy has? I have no idea.
However, your point is still made. There are many other factors which control the rate at which energy leaves the Earth system. There are also factors which dictate how much of the Sun's energy enters the system (e.g. clouds, ice/snow albedo, deforestation, aerosols, etc.).
I have never argued that additional CO2 doesn't increase warming. The problem I'm having is the amplified feedback hypothesis as well as the projections and predictions of catastrophe. As well, I think it's entirely plausible the Sun and its cycles plus the other system cycles it affects are more responsible for temperature variations than human activity of which CO2 is but one of a few others (which are rarely mentioned).
You got a good start. Real scientists can accurately predict the future. A properly programmed computer can also do this.
Notice that when you take the pot off the burner the temperature reduces. Now put the pot back on the burner and the pot will heat up again. So which came first? The action or stimulus came first then the heating of the water. Same way in all science. Right now for the last decade the earth has been cooling while the CO2 level has increased during that same time. That scientifically proves that CO2 is not the stimulus.
Any grade school level scientist can see that. It is not that hard.
What have you been smoking. This is not even a realistic analog. The Earth while the burner bringing the water to boil is constantly providing heat beneath the pot.
The lid although similar to the greenhouse cap isn't permeable. While the Suns heat can and is reflected back through the greenhouse cap, the steam/heat doesn't escape through the lid.
Totally different physics and chemistry involved. You really need to get beyond and elementary school approach to this stuff.
The lid corresponds to greenhouse gases. Of course the heating element effects the temperature of the water, but if someone were turning down the heat on the element and put the lid on, and the temperature of the water in the pot continued to increase, I would suspect that the lid is the cause of the increase of temperature.
Sagebrush
<Real scientists can accurately predict the future.>
So, are these people real scientists? http://psychics.californiapsychics.com/Goog/S/PC/PsychicHighVolume/PsychicsHV?utm_source=Google&utm_medium=CPC&utm_campaign=GOOG-S-PC-PsychicHighVolume&utm_content=$Min-PsychicsHV
Moe
<I'd like to find out how much the sun has contributed to the earths warming.>
It depends since when. Since the beginning of the end of the last ice age? That would be more orbital variations than the Sun.
In the last 150 years? Probably about 40%.
In the last 30 years? That would be a negative number. Probably about -50%. http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-intermediate.htm (Razzberry sound effects for SageFreedomMaxx.)