Solar progression - Cycle 24 looks to be weaker than predicted what will this mean for climate?
At this time, solar models predict that Solar Cycle 24 is supposed to peak in 2013 and then drop to very low levels for an even more enemic solar cycle 25.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
September, nearly 2/3 done now is trending equal to or lower than August. This shape seems to suggest that we may be closer to having reached the cycle peak. With well known correlation between these solar cycles, both by intensity of the solar cycle and the specific length of a solar cycle (We will not know how long cycle 24 will be until several years from now. Modela for this vary quite a bit right now. The transition between cycle 24 and Cycle 25 will occur when the poles shift and the new sunspots for Cycle 25 begin to appear (magnatic polarity and sturcture flips).
So if cycle 24 it now hitting or has already hit its peak, as anmemic as it is/was, what will this mean for the future climate trends? Most solar physicists say it portents a meaningful cooling trend...
Anonymous2012-09-19T08:19:42Z
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It is giving us the opportunity to test the thesis that sunspots directly effect our global temperatures.
The global warmingists would get what they want... and they could enjoy the hard times that come with colder temperatures.
They'll find some way to blame us for colder temperatures though... or perhaps they'll be destroyed by angry mobs...
I am actually very dubious of anyone's ability to predict the strength of solar cycles, simply because there have been so few that we've noticed that no one has had any practice. The prediction for the next several cycles has been for weaker cycles for a decade or more. (Not new news.) They did get the pathetic strength of this one right, however.
I honestly believe we are approaching another grand solar minimum similar to the Dalton or Maunder minimum. As of now solar cycle 24 is as weak as the start as the Dalton minimum or solar cycle 5 and I would expect solar cycle 25 to be weaker then solar cycle 24. Anytime in the next few years will be the start of a mini-ice age. I have also heard the earth will gradually head into a ice age over thousands of years. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/16/onset-of-the-next-glaciation/
“More than half the HadCRUT3 global temperature rise of 0.0046°C yr−1 since 1850 can be attributed solar activity. This leaves a temperature rise of 0.0022°C yr−1 since 1850 to be explained by other causes, which also may be solar with a longer time scale."
“The relations found indicates a temperature drop of 0.9°C globally during the newly started solar cycle 24. For measuring stations in Norway and Europe, the temperature decline has already started.” (Solheim et al, 2011)
The correlation strength between global temp analomy vs. last three solar cycle length is r^2 = 0.8911... the correlation strength of the relationship to carbon dioxide is less than 0.44 over 100 years; over the last decade, it is negative.
“…Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) …demonstrated a relationship between solar cycle length (in one cycle) and temperature over the following solar cycle…” “…Butler and Johnson (1996). …Armagh in Northern Ireland, …0.5° C temperature decline for every extra year of solar cycle length…in Central England: 0.6° C/yrscl; in Portland Maine, and Hanover New Hampshire: 0.7° C/yrscl
“Reichel et al. (2001) concluded that the right cause-and-effect ordering, in the sense of Granger causality, is present between the smoothed SCL and the cycle mean temperature anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere land air temperature in the twentieth century at the 99% significance level."
Actually most solar physicists say it might has as much as 10% of the effect of CO2 in the atmosphere, and that's a best case of our having several consecutive weak cycles. Even if we are so fortunate to have a period as weak as the Maunder Minimum, it would offset global warming by 0.3 degrees in the next 90 years at most. It will not come close to offsetting atmosphere-driven warming, which will likely be about 3 full degrees over that same period. That is what solar scientists are actually calculating.
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