Anonymous
Because all the evidence points to it. And it's not just Democrats were talking about it it's Republicans too. There are a lot of Republican writers and strategist who are warning of a coming Blue Wave. In fact, after the Democratic Wein in Virginia in 2017, one Republican strategist warned on Twitter that 2018 would not be a Blue Wave but a blue tsunami.
2018 seems likely to be a democratic wave for a number of reasons. First off, the president's party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections. The one recent exception to this, is one which proves the rule. And 2002, Republicans were able to actually win seats, but this was because they were able to ride the patriotism of 9/11. Most midterms usually see significant losses. 1994 so I Democrats lose the house for the first time in 40 years, 2006 saw the Democrats take it back, 2010 and 2014 saw first the house and the Senate move back to Republican control. These losses tend to happen even if the president is relatively popular. The problem for Republicans is that Trump is historically unpopular at this point in his presidency. His approval rating is hovering between 35 and 40%. That's lower than Barack Obama's was in 2010 when Democrats suffered a historic loss. Where she at is the fact that Trump seems to be very good at energizing Democrats to oppose him but very bad at energizing Republicans to support Republican candidates. What we've seen since Trump's 2016 Victory is that Democrats have done a lot better than the history of their races suggest that they should. In a series of special elections held to replace house members who have been promoted to Trump's cabinet Democrats did 15 to 20 points better in 2017 than in 2016. This surgeon enthusiasm has led to Democrats winning a couple of races which they had absolutely no business winning. The most famous was the special election in Alabama where a Democrat won a Statewide office for the first time in 20 years. Of course, the Republican in that race was dogged by accusations of pedophilia, but the race was closer than it ever should have been even before those stories came out. More recently, a Democrat won a race in a Pennsylvania congressional district which Donald Trump had carried by 20 points and which was so uncompetitive for Democrats that they didn't even bother to run a candidate in the last two elections. Once again, this demonstrates Democratic enthusiasm. Also a sign of democratic strength is the astonishing victory in Virginia in 2017. Democratic candidate Ralph Northam, regarded by many as an uninspiring candidate, absolutely slaughtered his Republican opponent, winning by one of the largest margins in decades. Even more impressive were Democratic victories in the state legislature. Democrats flipped 16 seats, racing a Republican supermajority and coming within one vote of gaining control of the State Legislature. This is really bad news for Republicans. While Virginia has been trending Democratic recently, the 2017 race showed that it was much less competitive for Republicans than it should have been. A few years ago when Ed Gillespie, the Republican candidate, ran for Senate he only lost by 2 points. This time he lost by 10.
There's other signs which suggest that 2018 will probably be a good year for Democrats. One is the generic ballot. This is a poll question which asks whether people would vote for a Democratic candidate or a republican candidate, without factoring in any personal qualities. Democrats currently have a 10-point advantage on the generic ballot. In 2010, when Republicans won crushing victories in the house, they had an eight-point advantage on the generic ballot. Also helping Democrats are a wave of Republican retirements. Generally, incumbents have an easier time winning elections than newcomers since they have a known personality and record to run on. This year, about 40 Republicans have already announced their retirement from Congress. This is more than the number of Democrats who retired in 2010. The final problem for Republicans is that their messaging doesn't seem to work very well. I already mentioned that Trump has a difficult job exciting conservative voters for Republican candidates. In Alabama he managed the remarkable feat of supporting two losers in the same race, first backing Luther strange in the primary and then backing Roy Moore in the general. Is campaigning for them did not help either these candidates win. Neither did trumps campaigning for the Republican in the recent Pennsylvania election. Republicans had hoped to run on their tax cut bill which was passed late in 2017. However, the experience in Pennsylvania suggests that this may be difficult. Remember that this was a district which when heavily for Trump in 2016. Yet when Republicans debuted a series of ads pumping the tax cut which it recently been passed it did not impact polling at all. More surprisingly, in a district which has a major steel industry to it, the recently-announced tariffs on foreign steel did not seem to Garner any support for the Republican candidate. If voters in heavily Republican districts are not responsive to messages about the tax cuts then it's hard to see what Republicans will be able to successfully campaign on in the fall. This will especially be the case in more moderate districts. Democrats need 24 seats to Take Back Control the house. There are 25 Republicans who currently represent districts which were won by Hillary Clinton. If a Democrat can win the Pennsylvania 18th then Democrats could win all of those districts and more.
virtual_cleo
Because we look forward to it.
Anonymous
Wish ful thinking
Turn it up! Bring the Derp!!!
Trump.
The guy has been the best advertisement for voting for anyone but a Republican since Nixon. Had anyone but Hilary been put up against him, they'd've won.
As such, apathy is turning into anger for many who would be considered "swing voters."
dumb
With global warming, the sky will be sunny therefore the seas will all look blue in the future.