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Global warming is a theory - how certain must you be in order to act? 50%? 70%? 90%?
Obviously, if we wait until we are 100% sure, it will be too late!
Can you think of a situation in your life where you are willing to act before you are 100% certain? Is your action wise? Should people buy insurance?
Uncertainty Example: Expected Payout in Poker
Suppose you are a gambler faced with this scenario:
-- The pot is worth $100.
-- It costs you $10 to bet.
-- Your odds of winning are 11%.
Is this a good bet? Answer: yes, because on average, you make more money than you lose.
Why does it make sense to invest even if the odds are against you? Even though you don’t win most of the time, when you do win, you win enough to offset your average losses.
What does the question above illustrate? Is it a good bet to prevent very costly events, even if they aren't 100% certain?
Suppose Global Warming would cost $500 trillion, and also suppose it is 50% likely: how much would you spend to avoid it?
"Robtheman" you only partly understood the question. By your answer, I can only assume you think global warming has a 0% chance of happening. That is not a rational assumption.
Mike M - thanks for giving me a chance to heap scorn on someone today. Not only did you refuse to contemplate the question, but you can't even formulate a coherent senence. Too bad you get to vote some day, even though you probably won't grow up!
"thepeskywabbit" - you gave a very thoughtful answer, but I disagree with one of your points.
No prediction can ever be proven or 100% correct. History is littered with people who claimed to make projections about the future, and many of those predictors were as smart as our climate scientists.
"Do you want to know" - did you actually read the question? Because your answer only makes sense if you didn't read it.
Perhaps you don't understand what a theory is - one way of describing a theory is any prediction about the future.
Of course, your reaction is similar to most people, on either side of the argument: like many people, you can only act if you are 100% certain of the outcome. Again, this might be normal, but it isn't smart.
"Christopher C" - thanks for your thoughtful answer. Some people are selfish in the way you describe, but I think other factors more important here.
-- The multi-billion dollar campaign (by the oil companies and others) to discredit global warming http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/st...
-- Also, there is the issue I am trying to discuss , i.e. people aren't good at understanding risk unless it is non-abstract and in their face.
Hat_c: OK, you disagree, and I could respect that if I thought you tried to understand the issue thoroughly.
Given the seriousness of this issue, do you really think you have done enough research to base a decision on the meager facts you presented?
"smart son of a *****" - you're living up to your eponymous name here, but I disagree.
I understand you are trying to put things in layman's terms; that makes sense when communicating with the average science-addled American.
Nonetheless, it is foolish to pretend we are 100% certain of any scientific prediction, especially one as complex as climate theory.
All we know is: there is a very strong correlation between data like the atmospheric CO2 content and the temperature. In other branches of science, correlation is not enough, you need experiments. Unfortunately, we cannot perform experiments at a global scale to verify our predictions.
Yes, assigning a statistical probability to a complex phenomenon is a simplification. But you are wrong if you think it is an invalid technique for decision making.
When making a decision, you must act with the knowledge you have at hand, making simplification necessary. There are always consequences to delay decisions until you have all data.
"kathy is a nurse" - I'm very disappointed that someone with your science background posted such an answer. Perhaps you failed your statistics classes...
If you had done better in your statistics classes, I am sure you would agree that it is possible to assign a probability to the issues you raise. And obviously, anyone who assigns a probability to an outcome (e.g. me) is NOT considering things in "black and white" terms.
What I think you are doing here is looking for any excuse to avoid facing a difficult issue that might affect the way you live your life.
Perhaps you should consider whether you are letting your personal prejudices interfere with your ability to think about important issues.
A little more for Kathy - who is casting the issue in "black and white" terms here?
-- Could it you, who refuses to act until you have 100% certainty?
Billy B - I can only assume you are being humorous, since, if global warming devastates our environment, there won't be very many humans around 90,000 years from now to experience the reversal you are hoping for.
Anne Marie -
There is a certain amount of truth in what you say, but I hope you will reconsider your stance.
It is true that some foolish people predicted global cooling years ago, but they were scientific minority acting with on little evidence.
There is a huge difference between that aberration and today's scientific consensus.
Today, almost all climate scientists believe global warming is real. And today there are multiple streams of evidence to back-up their ideas.
So, even if one evidence stream is discredited, there is still an overwhelming possibility that global warming is real.
I hope you won't let your frustration with a few mistaken scientists distort your decision-making process - the issue is too serious for that! Personal feelings should not interfere with important decisions.
Anne Marie - I should have added this to the statement above:
In conclusion, the people warning us today are definitely NOT the same people who worried about global cooling 20 years ago.
Anne Marie -
I also should mention how disappointed I am that you completely ignored the thrust of my question.
From your answer, I have to assume that you answer every question on global warming with the exact same answer, ignoring the points raised by the asker.
Again, by your answer, I have to assume that you think there is a 0% chance global warming is correct, based simply on the fact that some scientists acted foolishly in the past. Even if they were the same people, that is not a rational reason to ignore a group of experts.
I hope you don't make your other decisions with such recklessness!
13 Answers
- 1 decade agoFavorite Answer
Global Warming is not a gamble, though. I'm afraid your analogy is a bit flawed in that respect. Global warming is proved. Now, the only criteria of the warming left to be proved is the rate of destruction the warming causes.
I agree with you, wholeheartedly, in asserting that NOT paying attention to the information and data available to us is simply "rolling the dice." Unfortunately, humanity is desensitized to subtle changes. Unless the changes are in our face like an exploding car on the freeway or a building bursting into flame, or guns blazing in our ears----society will not be interested in listening.
First of all, the human race would actually have to be interested in reading a book, publication, or article that doesn't have pictures or doesn't revolve around Dr. Phil, Oprah Winfrey, or what rich celebrity has divorced their spouse to have an affair with someone else.
I applaud your question. I also grieve about the answer. The majority of the human race doesn't care----period. If the changes that will be a global killer are not slated in the T.V. Guide to be accomplished in the spans of their lives, then they have no vested interest.
- 1 decade ago
Global warming is a theory, yes, however u must know that in science everything is called theory - theory doesnt meant that it may be wrong. In other word theory is just a way of calling scientific principle and has nothing to do with reliability. For example human have two hands will be considered a theory as well under the scientific system even though it is 100% certain. Global Warming is real - it has been shown in scientific data that global temperature is increasing every year. What we are not certain is its impact on us (remember, in the past there are times when the world's temperature is much higher than it is now - we have actually just leave an ice age). In other words, we are 100% sure global warming is happening - we just disagree on what to do about it, what its impact will be, what will happen, and whether this is a good thing or a bad thing.. Global warming cannot be simplified into a gamble or a pot - it is way, way more complex and it's not just whether to take action or not (which is the only two outcome in the gamble) but it's more about what action to take, etc.
- 1 decade ago
I don't believe most people who say that global warming is not real or is just natural actually believe that. Why would they possibly think they actually know more about the subject than the large majority of the leading climate scientists of the world who are now almost in unanimous agreement that temps are rising faster than a natural cycle would produce and that humans are most likely the cause. No, these people simply don't care because they will not be around to face the consequences and they truly lack the ability to think long term and globally. They probably care little about what happens farther away than the street they live on.
People who call it fuzzy science should research the scientific journals themselves. Doubt that will happen. There is no fuzziness there.
- Anne MarieLv 61 decade ago
Twenty years ago, the same people telling us about global warming were warning about "global cooling" and a new ice age within a hundred years. We still have another 80 years to go before we know 100% whether that prediction was right.
Today, some of the same people who said in 1976 that the earth was cooling, and in 1996 said that it's warming, now say that it's cooling. They say that the Atlantic Conveyor, which drives the Gulf Stream, will stop because of "global warming," causing northern Europe to turn frigid and trigger another ice age.
In gambling parlance, that's known as hedging your bets, so that you can't be wrong.
Like they say around here, if you don't like the weather, you just have to wait a minute. (giggles)
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- Anonymous1 decade ago
Global warming IS NOT a theory. It is happening right now. People are taking action right now to try to end global warming. Al Gore's movie An Inconvienent Truth, MTV has a website Break the Addiction, as well as many others. People are trying to stop global warming before we reach the point of no return with it. Before all we can do is watch are earth go to ****. It doesnt take much at all to get involved. I would spend and/or want my country spend any amount necessary to stop it, so when I have children and they have children etc. I want them to enjoy everything possible about this beautiful earth. Do some research about this. Google it.
- kathy_is_a_nurseLv 71 decade ago
Sorry, pal. It's not as black and white as you are trying to paint it. Let's assume we do believe global warming exists. We also have to believe that Man had anything to do with it. We also have to believe that it is even a bad thing, i.e., is .2 of a degree really going to matter? And then we also have to believe that the investment in correcting the problem (again assuming it exists) will have enough of an impact to warrant the cost to civilization.
When you factor in those variables, you can't blame people...like me...who want to see more definitive proof than what your group has offered us so far.
Get back to us when it is more than just "fuzzy" science.
- robthemanLv 61 decade ago
While we are going through global warming, there's no amount of money that can be spent to prevent it. If you look at the history of the planet, the planet goes through regular cycles where it warms up and cools back down. We are in the warming period of one of these cycles, but the temperature is rising higher than is has in the past. On the other hand, having ice caps is unusual for the history of the planet as well. We might just be heading back to normalcy...a very hot, miserable environment.
- collingtonLv 44 years ago
exciting. i hit upon it confusing to contemplate the data while maximum of political factions submit records on their web pages. an in depth pal is a chemical engineer and has accomplished very a great number of reading on the project and believes there is something yet consensus. His take is that it somewhat is plenty extra complicated than the scientific community knows. isn't it remarkable how some human beings call it a fact? i do no longer understand of something scientific that develop into no longer a fact sooner or later and fiction the subsequent. this is consistent in technology. i think we could desire to continually act in a in charge thank you to maintain our planet sparkling as a results of fact this is the perfect element to do. no person is for pollutants, and that i think of many all of us is getting extra attentive to chemical aspects, and so on that are only risky. Al Gore does no longer understand extra beneficial than any scientist, and he's making a living from it. If he have been a Republican, each and every liberal at here could blast him as a profiteer, so because it somewhat is a reason this is skeptical. we are going to see. the main serious situation is oil dependency. we are enriching our enemy, and we could desire to develop into self sufficient.
- 1 decade ago
World has warmed up and cooled many times before, I would be more worried about global cooling, and there must be some positives about the planet warming.
- tenaciousdLv 61 decade ago
Well put. I think the problem is too many people are 100% certain it won't effect them in their lifetime. Only possibly later, and they would rather somebody else pay for it, even if its their great great grandchildren.