Why do so few baserunners steal home any more?

Back in the day, offense was down, so it would be a good idea to try anything to get a run in. In this day and age, you need an absurdly strong chance to make it break even.

For example, with two out, the run expectancy (RE) with a runner on third and no outs is 1.44. If he makes the steal, then he nets a run, and then, we'd expect another 0.52 for leading off an inning. So, if he makes it, it's worth 1.52 runs. If he fails, there are no runners on, and one out, a RE of 0.28.

If he steals home successfully 92% of the time, and gets out 8% of the time, he breaks even. 92% is the breakeven mark. No players steal second 92% of the time successfully.

With two out, the breakeven mark becomes 36%, which is still very hard to make...

It's a rare play, because it is difficult to pull off, and has high risk. A better play is with runners on 1st and 3rd with 2 out (breakeven of 38%, but the odds of succeeding is higher than a raw steal of home), but it's an artifact of the game, such as 30-win seasons.

Consider it a rare occurance that shows heads up play and opportunists. You need a walking lead, and the stars to align right.

It is a very exciting play, but considering most pitchers are right handers (looking at 3rd) and are more aware of it, it is considered unwise. Also, unless you have 2 outs, it's too risky. In Ty Cobb's day, there were very little home runs compared to today, they would rather wait for a big fly. Also, in the dead ball era, there were less fly balls in general, to bring home the runner on a sacrifice fly, so they decided stealing home was a risk worth taking. Today, there are too many other options.

Pitchers dont do as long windups as they used to with a runner on third base. Since runs are scored more frequently theres a good chance they will be hit in and everything has to work perfect to steal home. They can pick you off nowadays when grady sizemore stole home it was only because the pitcher payed 0 attention to him [last year]

Stealing home plate is a rather hard accomplishment nowadays. This is due to the pitchers not making full windups when they have base-runners. Most people who stole home, did it on pitchers with extremely long and slow deliveries.

Cause it is really hard to do. A lot has changed since back then. Pitchers probably throw the ball a lot harder and the base paths might be long than back then, i'm not sure though. Good question, you get a star.

it's just to hard now, the pitchers are to fast, they really accurate so their aren't really many passed balls, so they are pretty much going on a suicide mission to try to steal home, they do have a much better chance waiting for somebody to drive them in, now in little league yeah, take a shot go for it but they are to good in the majors now a day;s

game has changed big time

im sensing ur a tigers fan cuz the cobb refrence if u are

lmao u remember a little bit ago sheffield stole home it was amazing

yes it is but it is also dangerous if the batter doesn't know your coming and could hit in the head with a swing

No big windups like they did in the past!

They want the hitters to drive them in.