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Will the U.S.dare to intervene if Taiwan declares independence?
China's exports to the U.S. are only 21% of their entire export to the world. But almost everything, from low-end goods to high-tech products in the U.S. are made in China. As someone once said: "China can more afford to lose the U.S.market than the U.S. can afford to lose its business with China." That and the fact China holds a massive amount of U.S. treasury assets that are growing day by day. So, it looks like the U.S. economy is the one that is at risk of being in the crapper should war break out.
Rillifane,
Looks like it is you who needs to understand some basic economics and a reality check.
Can you read? China exports 21% to the U.S., while the U.S. imports over 90% of everyday products from China. At the same time, China has many other overseas markets with high demands for its goods.
Even if you want to entertain the notion of taking away the entire U.S. market from China, in the real world, how can you possibly stop buying almost everything you use to live your life? Are you willing to sleep on the street? It is also foolish for anyone to use the analogy of stop buying all your products from one store and simply look for another store, simply because there is no other country capable of producing both the quantity and variety of goods produced by China. If you read a little, you'll find out that China doesn't just produce what Walmart sells, instead it produces a huge array of products at all levels of technology. And that list is growing longer everyday....
with more and more of its products entering into new markets.
But let's say for argument's sake that EVEN IF the impossible scenario occurred where the U.S. stopped buying all of its goods from China. For China, the loss of 21% of its export market would quickly be compensated by other world markets that are lining up with high demand for its inexpensive goods. Meanwhile, many in the U.S. would go hungry and naked on the street because no other suppliers could fulfill U.S. consumer demand.
As for the "trade surplus" you talked about, you obviously don't even have basic grasp of how the currency market works, nor do you seem to know what a Treasury-backed asset means. First of all, if the U.S. government were to declare its Treasury-backed assets worthless, then the U.S. would have committed financial suicide. The reason government bonds are considered the "safe" investment vehicle by investors is because the govt. that issued it has credibility. If the U.S. govt. .....
suddenly reneged on its promise to pay on the value of its bonds, it would be like kicking out the most reliable cushion from underneath all investors around the world. The remaining bonds held by other countries and by individual investors in the U.S. and elsewhere would lose almost all their value. And with the sudden surge in supply of worthless U.S. bonds on the market, the dollar will collapse. The demise of this major pillar of the U.S. financial market will trigger unimaginable panic and place the entire U.S. financial sector in peril. The result will be a U.S. economy flushed down the crapper.
Meanwhile, on China's side, the effect will be as follows. China holds U.S. bonds in its reserves, which can be useful in offsetting trade deficits. But since China has a huge trade SURPLUS, so it doesn't even need the U.S. Treasury assets in its reserves. So EVEN IF the U.S. bonds were to lose their value, its effect would be inconsequential for China. In the meantime, since...
China's currency is pegged to an undisclosed basket of foreign currencies including the dollar, and China's govt. can freely manipulate the composition of this basket of currencies, a collapse of the U.S. dollar would most likely mean that China's currency will depreciate relative to other currencies as well, making the cost of Chinese goods in other countries EVEN CHEAPER. At this point whether or not China still trades with the U.S. is not even a relevant question, because the cheaper Chinese goods in other world markets will more than make up for the loss in exports to the U.S. Now, don't forget that all of these developments would be taking place while the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar are in shambles. I don't want to imagine what that would mean to the average American, and neither do you.
In case you still don't get it, the U.S. dependence on China's products is only a great disadvantage for the U.S., not for China, if war breaks out between the two nations.
Now, with China's industries moving up the value chain in manufacturing, the U.S. is growing even more dependent on China's exports, which means the U.S. could only provoke China at is own peril.
I won't go into any further details, because it would be too deep for a person like yourself who is obviously educated by the mass media. If people like you could even understand half of the basic things I explained above, I would congratulate you.
9 Answers
- Anonymous1 decade agoFavorite Answer
Thanks to George Bush, AmeriKa is a paper tiger and the Chinese know they could whip the U.S. with one full Division of Military tied behind their back.
- RillifaneLv 71 decade ago
Anyone who beleives that "China can more afford to lose the U.S.market than the U.S. can afford to lose its business with China." has it exactly backwards.
China's economic expansion would collapse without the American market and the fact that China has run a huge trade surplus with the USA and acquired a large pool of dollar credits means nothing if the USA simply declares such credits as worthless.
The fact is that the US economy is the strongest in the world and can sustain itself purely on internal trade. There is literally nothing that the USA gets from China that it actually needs or that it could not make for itself (or buy from other low cost third world nations).
Americans enjoy reaping the benefits of low cost labor and prefer that those doing such labor not be Americans. Act on the fantasy that China has any real power and that will change immediately.
EDIT: apparently you think that China exports houses to the United States.
There is NOTHING that China exports to the United States that it cannot get along without even if it was not possible to buy it from another low cost provider.
China sells a lot because it is a low labor cost provider and not because they build anything that requires expertise that is not readily available anywhere in the world.
The Americans can move their factories to Mexico or any of dozens of other places. They could even, if they wanted to do coolie labor themselves, reopen their own factories.
China works for America, doing manual labor for hideously low wages that Americans do not want to do for themselves. To think this makes China powerful or even important is ludicorus.
500 million Chinese don't have clean water to drink. Some 60,000 people a year die from water pollution related illness. Is a nation in which half the population drinks filthy water everyday a great power?
Almost every major city in China is covered by a grey haze of poluution. Cancer rates in China have skyrocketed as a result of enviormental pollution. Respiratory disease is at epidemic proportions for the same reason. 300,000 people a year die from ambient air pollution.
China has become one vast cess pool in which a relative handful of entrepreurs and corrupt party officials have become rich but where the average Chinese lives at a level of poverty that is incompatible with any thought of great power status.
But the real proof of the relative positions of the two countries is the utter panic which has gripped the Chinese government over American dissatisfaction with health and safety issues related to Chinse products. Such panic demonstrates that the Chinese government understands that it cannot survivie without the American market.
- 1 decade ago
After living less than an hour from Taiwan for over 3 years, I know the US will intervene. We still have TREMENDOUS military power in the Asian side of the Pacific. Okinawa is RIGHT there, were there are no less than 6 different bases on an island that is at the longest 60 miles long and at the widest 10 miles across.
As it stands right now though, the US will not even run Navy ships through the Straits of Taiwan even if it is shorter/more direct route to where the ships are headed because they are trying VERY hard to walk a balance with both China and Taiwan.
Also, when East Timor declared it's independence from Timor, we sent troops there to help and to help rebuild.
Source(s): Lived in Okinawa for 3.5 years. Married to a Military Man :) - 1 decade ago
For a long time the US would not think of intervening, because of the "Cold War" and the possibility the USSR and China would band together. Now I think some people in the government would have a bigger voice toward encouraging US intervention, but in the end, the US would not actually send troop.
If the US did intervene it would be in the form of warnings about "trade sanction," which we all know has been almost useless in the past.
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- matt_of_asiaLv 61 decade ago
The most important thing to the US economy is not walmart shoes. Its your defense industry. They own you.
Thus yes, the US will intervene. But not for freedom. To test out the newest modern technologies against each other in a real, killing situation in a friendly kind of weapons competition. Thats why wars are regular things. Its just industrial testing of toys between the biggest mafia groups. Russia used to be able to pony up for the industry, now China is the good customer.
China is also owned by them. Actually, probably we all are. So you can go ahead and dance the pro-china dance but realize... there are no countries. Nationalism is just you getting used as a tool. There is only multinational interests. Local government only exists to mop up messes at YOUR cost, not the corps.
- Anonymous1 decade ago
The US is bound by law to assist Taiwan should China invade.
There are more important things than economics in this world. We can always find someone else willing to manufacture crappy sneakers and cheap plastic kitchen appliances. Where will we find a new Taiwan if China destroys it?
- Xander CrewsLv 41 decade ago
Depends who is in charge. I suspect Bush would want to help Taiwan, but I'm unsure of what the presidential candidates would do. If any part of a country wants unanimously wants to secede, then by all means they should be able to do so. That opinion even applies to the US.
- 1 decade ago
I really don't see China invasion would happen. If it does, I think US will denounce the action but will not send out troops. It is not whether US dares or not, it is just not worthy and necessary to dance with the stupid Chen Shuibian.
- 1 decade ago
Taiwan is US territory.
So, of course the US will step in if Taiwan is attacked.
Source(s): http://www.taiwanadvice.com/
