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Why cant correlation be used to argue for cause and effect?
5 Answers
- Edward GLv 61 decade agoFavorite Answer
Two variables that are correlated MAY be cause and effect, but the correlation may also exist because both are dependent on a third variable.
- 1 decade ago
Because it's not proof, it's circumstantial evidence. No, seriously. There could be another reason why two circumstances seem to increase with each other that have nothing to do with cause and effect.
Let me pick a classic example of correlation: emergency rooms and broken limbs.
If you ask a thousand people who have been to the emergency room in 2007 whether they've broken a limb this year, and another group who have not been to the emergency room, then the first group will have had more broken limbs - so, there's a definite, strong correlation between broken limbs and trips to the emergency room. However... trips to the emergency room do not cause broken limbs.
This seems entirely specious, but then take the next example from real life: overweight and asthma. Overweight people have more asthma - but is the extra weight causing the asthma, or is there a pressure on people with asthma to exercise less that causes people with asthma to be more likely to become overweight? The correlation doesn't tell you anything except that somehow there's a link - it can't be used to argue for cause and effect.
- geoff_hazelLv 51 decade ago
The problem is to determine which is the cause and which is the effect.
Even if A tracks with B over time, does the rise in A cause B, or does B cause A? Or neither!!
It could be that they are both the effect of an unknown cause C.
And that's why there is disagreement about global warming being caused by human activity producing CO2. Even if the CO2 correlates with global warming, can we say that the co2 causes warming, or perhaps they are both caused by something else? or even it's just coincidence.
- 1 decade ago
Correlation is about an apparent connection, based on statistics, anecdote, proximity, or other information. Causality is about cause and effect.
Two things can have a correlation without any causality. To prove cause and effect, you really need hard, experimental evidence.
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- Anonymous1 decade ago
it can to a mathimatical poit? but then.