If Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas will this hurt Obama's chances of winning the nomination?

I'm a Frenchman living in France, but I'm very much interested in the 2008 US Presidential election. I find this campaign fascinating.

I don't see how Michigan and Florida delegates could be 'reinstated'. The party decided not to acknowledge those primaries before they took place, all candidates agreed to that, and then in spite of that Hillary Clinton didn't withdraw from the Michigan would-be primary and won for lack of opponent, and she went to Florida telling people that she would do everything to have their votes taken into account, which of course prompted people to vote for her. I view her behaviour as extremely disloyal in both instances and in my opinion this kind of attitude is not very good for her image.

In any case I can't see how the rules could be changed after the game has taken place.

Now regarding the stats which the asker mentions, I think one has to take into account the following facts :

- Hillary Clinton needs to win in those three states by a large margin to compensate for her losses in the 'lesser states'.

- The latest polls don't give her so much of an advantage; roughly speaking they would allow her to gain a +65 delegates, not enough to lead in pleged delegates.

- There is still quite some time to go before the primaries,

and the situation changes very fast; so far it changes in BO's favour. So it is likely that even if she wins in the three states,

she will actually gain little in terms of delegates.

Besides, many superdelegates said very early that they would vote for HC, well before BO appeared as a viable option. They may well reconsider as the situation has completely changed.

Moreover, I find that HC's overall tone is very negative, agressive, and totally lacks appeal. Basically her main reproach against BO is that he's able to

arise enthusiasm. Problem is when one's running for President one has to arise enthusiasm. If she can't she should put the blame on herself, not on her fellow democrat

candidate. She should be positive about herself, not negative about others. Apparently her campaing has taken a new tack: even more of the same negativity. Similarly, she harps upon the 'experience issue'. This is completely counter productive,

because even if she were nominated, clearly she cannot

claim that she has more experience than McCain. This gives the impression that she doesn't care about her party's presidential chances , only her own chances of getting nominated . Moreover she keeps playing on division

(asking for women to vote for her because she's a woman,

reminding Latinos that they're not suppose to be voting for a

black fellow ...) . Again counter productive since people seem to be craving for a sense of unity these days. There's also that strange idea that people should prefer Hillary because they liked Bill. Now you can't have it both ways : either Hillary the 1st woman president of the US, or she's just Mrs Clinton the surrogate of a good president who deserves a 3rd and 4th madate by proxy ?

All that is frankly not very appetizing. No wonder that wherever BO goes, he gets the votes. (Not mentioning his personal qualities, which I will not comment upon now as this post is already way too long!) I don't see why BO's ascension should not go on. Just take a look at this curve (link below).

Even the Clinton camp says Hillary must win all three and....here's the catch... win big. That's very close in Texas, and the Rasmussen poll isn' t that discouraging, considering there are l8 days between now and March 4. The more time that man has, the better he does. Those numbers will be different by the end of next week. In Texas, people are already wondering when he will be here and where.

If Hillary wins both states including Pennsylvania, Barack still has a chance but if Michigan and Florida delegates will be reinstated he will probably have a small chance of getting the nomination and the majority of the superdelagates will pick Hillary

The effect would be to prolong the race, as it were, with nobody the apparent leader. Its the seesaw effect you might say. My thinking is that the Michigan - Florida delegation squabble is a big time wild card in this contest.

As it stands right now, since Hillary also just got NM added, if Florida and Michigan are seated, Hillary is in the lead.

it will be decided at the convention with the super delegates;;; it is set up that way in order for promises made and to keep ...and who will be in the administration, ambassadors etc.......the supers will vote according what part of the spoils they will get..Clinton was been promising a lot of paybacks.....she will get the nod....

I hope it does. But it will still be too close to declare a winner. It's going to come down to the supers.

I hope she wins

I hope Clinton will win.

She is our hope for our country