Without bias opinion, who is going to win the general election?

If it were held today, I'd say the Democratic candidate. I base this on the fact that I believe most Americans are more concerned with economic issues than social issues (like gay marriage) and, today, Americans would vote "with their pocketbooks." Second, Yahoo reports via the AP that Bush intends to attack Iran. Do I believe it? No, but every little factor turns the tide towards or against a candidate. Third-Americans are sick to death of Iraq and McCain changed "100 years" to 2013 and that sounds like appeasement for votes. 4th-Ron Paul could still disrupt the Republican convention. We may discount him, but he's still in the race. 5th-the Liberatarian candidate will take votes from the GOP, not the Democratics. Bush carried my state by 800 votes in 2004 and Gore won my state by 2400 votes in 2000. Those are tiny margins, so a 3rd party candidate could change any state. There will be a Liberatarian on the ballot in my state and Ron Paul will be on the ballot (at this time). 6th-Senator McCain says economics is not his strong point. Those words will come back to haunt him. This election could be decided by the price of gas on election day. Although you would not know it from this site, most Americans do not mention gay marriage as an important issue and McCain's position on that issue, and most issues dear to the far right, is very weak. 7th-the promise to appoint Republican judges? The California Supreme Court is Republican and some liberal U.S. Supreme Court Justices like Souter, Kennedy and Stevens were Republican appointees. 8th-President Bush has the lowest ratings for the longest period of time of any president in our history. Senator McCain cannot avoid the fall-out of Americans who just want change. Also, President Bush's trip to the Mid-East was a dismal failure. He coudn't get the Saudis to release more oil. It's also significant that he got NO bounce in the polls AT ALL from his daughter's wedding. That's remarkable! Finally-between Obama and Clinton, Obama is fresh and new and is drawing larger crowds and pulling in more money than Senator Clinton. No matter how you feel about Senator Clinton, she represents "the old" and Obama represents "the new." Generally, the most underrepresented voters are youth. If Senator Obama gets them to the polls as he has been thus far, he'll win IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY. This are the facts as I see them today. "I'm David M. and I support this message for the next few hours." EDIT: I thought of one more thing. did anyone else see that handwriting analysis story on the home page at Yahoo? McCain admits in his autobiography he has a bad temper and threw raging tantrums as a child. I think there's some very lukewarm support for his candidacy from folks (politicians) in Arizona and other states that will get some play. The comments by these people, who do support him, are already public and real easy to find. If the Democrats can paint him as "trigger-happy", it negates the homeland security issue. I also disagree that his age is not a factor. I'm ok that's he's 72. Hell, I'm 60, but it's that desire for change coupled with his age that could work against him without Democratic candidate ever mentioning his age. Every time the Democrats say they honor "his long and admirable service to the nation," doesn't it bring up age? Remember when Bob Dole fell off a podium when he was speaking? Just made him look feeble. Also-I'm ok with Cindy McCain not releasing her tax returns, but don't paint yourself as a common, working class man when your wife is one of the richest women in the nation. Does withholding her tax returns raise even more questions than releasing them?

this election was supposed to be a shoe-in for the democrats. now here we are in a situation where whichever candidate wins the nomination will likely alienate a significant number of democrats. i hope that this is less of a problem in november than it looks now, but i honestly have no idea how things will play out. as for the person who says the nation tilts to the right, this is another great example of people confusing their own beliefs with the actual facts. 35 percent of the country are registered democrat, 32 percent republican. and opinion polls consistently indicate that most americans, while they don't identify as liberals, hold liberal beliefs. they support raising the minimum wage and single-payer healthcare. they don't want to see social security dismantled the way so many posters here seem to. and so on. this is why i'm at least hopeful for the dems chances.

According to the polls, if it comes down to Obama and McCain, Obama will be the winner.

Also according to the polls if it is between Clinton and McCain it would be Clinton.

I think the administration in power for the last 8 years has ruined any Republican's chance to win.

John McCain and Bobby Jindal would be Barak Obama and John Hugo Chavez Edwards.

I think the Dems are doing everything to lose the election. You don't usually see all this dirt before the real election starts. Hillary and Obama have drag so much mud out that it will just make it that much easier for McCain. Unless some surprise comes and Obama isn't the Dems choice I think McCain will win. So much of the true Obama is already in play just makes you wonder what else there is to find out. McCain does have the down fall of being like Bush but does have a great background. And is age doesn't seem to be a factor because all you have to say remember Ronald was said to be to old also.

I think Obama will be hard to stop. The country is trending Democrat and wants change. Obama is an inspirational leader who will get many out to the polls who don't normally vote. And many Republicans are not happy with their candidate.

As Sir Harold Wilson, British Labour Prime Minister said, "A week is a long time in politics."

I think that Dick Morris has put it well, by describing Senator Obama as the unelectable candidate, nominated by the party that cannot lose AND Senator McCain as the dream candidate, nominated by the party that cannot win.

On that basis, although I expect a surge for Senator Obama, for a time, once he gets the nomination, I think that Senator McCain has the edge in the Fall, because presidential elections are more about personalities, than about parties.

If it is close, I expect Senator McCain to win. If it is a landslide, it will be Senator Obama's.

I prefer Senator McCain as I am in favor of gridlock. I don't trust any of them and I do not think that Senator McCain is George Bush, whom I believe to be either moronic or acting as a Senator for Texas, rather like LBJ. Both of them liked wars, entitlement programs and massive spending.

Fundraising: Obama

Ability to draw a crowd: Obama

Best able to articulate change from Pres. Bush: Obama

Experience: McCain

National Security: McCain

Economy: Obama

Foreign policy: Toss up. Depends on an individual's point of view.

Domestic policy: Obama

McCain. And Polls are not facts as someone else stated.

The reason is racial to an extent , Because Obama's main support to this date has been in states with large black population. He is behind in Fl , Pa. and Ohio. So if you look over the map of the US , he will win the standard democratic states , lose the standard republican states but also lose Pa. and Ohio , thus he loses the election.

Again Dems are delusional, just because they are energized and ecstatic over Obama , they falsely think everyone is .

for the record I won't be voting for either McCain or Obama

The electoral college is going in the favor of the republicans. The democrats have disenfranchised two key states, Michigan with 17 electoral votes and Florida with 27. You can not give the Republicans 44 vote lead and be in close contest in Pennsylvania, 21, Ohio, 20, and New York a blue state is currently in McCain's camp. This is not good for the democrats.