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Concerning Global Warming: how can this be??

Okay, this is for all the global warming alarmists out there...

According to "expert" predictions, "scientific" forecasts, etc., etc., etc., the Earth is warming at an ALARMING rate, and it is PREDICTED that major climate changes over the next 10, 20, 100, etc., years are gong to drastically change our planet, quite possibly so drastically that all life as we know it will be irrevocably altered, possibly even destroyed, by this change. Predictions of more frequent, more violent hurricanes and tornadoes, heavy rain/drought (depending on who you ask), hotter summers and milder winters, depletion of the ozone, shifting regional climates, etc., etc., are constantly being pushed out to the public as Gospel truth, paired with the admonition that if we don't change our ways, we are doomed. This of course has resulted in the resurgence of the green people, who blame humans (Americans in particular) for all of the Earth's woes.

HOWEVER, a recent article about the disparities between the forecasts of the Farmer's Almanac (which claims an 80-85% accuracy rate for its predictions) and the National Weather Service has produced an interesting assertion from Ed O'Lenic, the Chief of Opertaions for the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. According to Mr. O'Lenic, it is "impossible" to forecast weather more than a week ahead of time (this is in response to the Almanac's "predictions" being prepared up to 2 years in advance of publication). He goes on to say that "Of course it's possible to prepare a forecast with any lead time you like. Whether or nor that forecast has any accuracy or usable skill is another question."

Now, I'm not one to advocate excessive overuse of natural and finite resources, and surely don't support widespread pollution at the cost of our planet, but if this is true, and Mr. O'Lenic is a respected and authoritative member of the climate prediction crowd, how is it possible for anyone to tell us, with ANY accuracy whatsoever, what the weather will be like in 100 years if they can't tell us with any surety what the weather will be like next Thursday??

Just trying to figure out the discrepancy here. Those of you "in the know" please help me out here...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080824/ap_on_re_us/fa...

Update:

Edit: Phred - "The further out in time the less accurate the prediction is just like weather forecasting". My point exactly. However, rest assured, big changes are coming?? that's a blanket statement with no sustainable backing. Akin to Bill Gates assuring the world in the early 80's that there is no reason for a computer to EVER need more than 640k of memory to be effective. Or like looking at a particular intersection and saying, "mark my words, there's going to be an accident here if things don't change". The law of averages dictates that. Global warming "scientists" are promulgating their predictions as infallible and absolute. This is impossible given the methods of forecasting, AND historical data.

Update 2:

Edit: Rob B - not buying that one. Watch the local weather forecast; they use computer "modeling" to give forecasts up to 8-9 days in advance, and even THOSE forecasts change from the 5 o'clock news to the 10 o'clock news. I don't doubt for one SECOND that the weather will change in some way over the next few centuries, but to put out computer estimates as irrefutable fact is irresponsible in my opinion.

Update 3:

edit: Hola - what I find interesting is that the "alarming" rise in global temperatures began occuring AFTER data from some of the coldest weather monitoring points on earth were no longer being considered. Drop the lower numbers from the equation, and mathmatically the ONLY result is a higher average temperature.

Update 4:

Edit: Adam C - Predict - foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason.

Forecast - to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data.

Hmmm..."predict" and "forecast" have different letters, and are therefore differetn words, but amazingly, they sound INCREDIBLY similar in definition (also known an synonymous, since you want to play the symantics game). The contradiction, Adam, is that global warming alarmists are simultaneously forecasting what the weather will be like as a result of the climate change, and they are using flawed data to do so. Incomplete data, shortened or cherry-picked historical trends, flawed or modifiable computer modeling, etc., all are being used to tell us what the cliamte AND weather are going to be like in 100 years.

Update 5:

For the most part, pretty good answers with no name calling. Keep 'em coming; tell your friends!!!

Update 6:

EDIT: Stinky Badger - I would guess that one of the ppeople you might be reffering to would be Al gore, noted climatologist...no, wait, didn't he win a Nobel Prize? Or was he a politician?? Hmm, well, he's kind of hard to categorize, isn't he? Kind of like the predictions of global warming/climate change are hard to solidify, huh? MOST everyone else has offered an answer that pertains to the question. Too bad you missed the boat on that one...

14 Answers

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  • Adam C
    Lv 5
    1 decade ago
    Favorite Answer

    Oh, dear, oh, dear...

    I know we've done this a few times before but let's do it one more time and see if it sinks in this time.

    'Weather' is a different word than 'climate' (you'll notice it has different letters in it...).

    'Weather' is extremely hard to predict with any accuracy more than a few days in advance.

    'Climate', especially broad trends on a planet-wide basis, is still incredibly complex but is possible to predict.

    I've seen this in many questions: It starts with a statement such as:

    "major climate changes" are "predicted"

    and then goes on to say that

    it is "impossible" to forecast "weather".

    This is the same as saying that cats are believed to eat mice and yet it has been proved that cows cannot digest mice...

    Cows are not cats.

    Climate is not weather.

  • 1 decade ago

    A lot of people here don't understand that there's a difference between weather and climate. Weather is localized and on a day to day basis; climate is a worldwide trend. When someone reports a record low in Denver, that's an isolated weather report, and it has nothing to do with climate change. The climate change predictions are based on decades of observation of trends, and those climate scientists don't claim to be able to precisely predict the weather for specific years in the future. They're only saying that they've observed an ongoing change.

    [edit]

    I see you spent a lot of time saying repeatedly that predicting and forecasting are synonymous, but you've totally ignored the numerous answers pointing out the difference between weather and climate. Your whole argument hinges on equating the two, and you just can't do it.

  • Anonymous
    5 years ago

    Among other things Global Warming causes the polar ice regions to melt that will release methane and poisonous gases and make the atmosphere unbreathable. Yahoo, probably the worlds leading climatologist, James E Hanson Columbia University. We have about 10 years to lower the temp or those gases will start releasing, as Hanson says the situation is becoming dire. Our present financial industrial system is loading the atmosphere with carbon which causes the global warming. Peak Oil will only exacerbate the problem. Unfortunately the corporate world is addicted to profits and like drug addicts they continue to pollute even though it will kill them and everyone on the planet. Society has gone lethally schizoid, the experts are now almost unanimous in their warnings to the world, but most Governments and the business media are carrying on as if nothing dire is happening. The business media make their money via advertising and most of what they write is for their advertisers, including the corporations using fossil fuels Check it out. Also yahoo Colin Campbell Peak Oil and make sure you get the original.

  • 1 decade ago

    The earth's climate has changed many times in the past to other factors. We should be in an ice age but human activity has postponed this. The predictions of what will happen is unknown. The further out in time the less accurate the prediction is just like weather forecasting. Be rest assured big changes are on the way

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  • Tom P
    Lv 5
    1 decade ago

    I don't believe in AGW but there is some truth to what Mr. O'Lenic says. The mistake being made here is a differentiation between climate and weather. AGW proponents are not claiming to predict weather 100 years out, they are claiming to predict the entire climate.

    With that said, they cannot predict the climate 100 years out either, no matter what their alarmist claims state. This is easily proven by the fact that current climate models fail to accurately predict today's climate based on historical input. http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publications/p...

    If the models cannot predict what is already known they are completely useless for predicting climate at any time in the future.

  • 1 decade ago

    When they say that it may get hotter and that there will be more rain in a few years, they are following the patterns from a few years back. They are only right if the pattern continues.

    Also, they aren't actually predicting an day to day forecast. They're just saying that in general it will get hotter. They aren't necessarily right.

  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    Wow I am so glad you typed that really long question here on Yahoo Answers, just think of all the politicians, climatologists and Nobel Prize winners that will get this important info now.

  • ?
    Lv 7
    1 decade ago

    First of all, we are in an Ice Age. Our Ice Age consists of periods of glaciation and Interglacial periods. We are currently in a very warm stage of an interglacial period. To suggest that we would be in an "Ice Age" (translation = glacial period) if it weren't for American prosperity (that is what Alarmists suggest causes global warming) is just about the most ridiculous claim I have heard in a while. If Alarmists don't raise the shrill level every year, then they are afraid their doomsday message will be lost on those of us who don't buy into it. It is remarkable to me that this current Alarmist Crisis has gone this far. We need to have one of those McCarthy moments where someone like the lawyer Welch said, "You have done enough. Have you no sense of decency?" ,

  • 1 decade ago

    I' m just as befuddled as you are on the issue ofglobal warming, not knowing who to believe. I suppose that we'll just have to strike out to find our own answers.

    This is written by former astronaught Walter Cunningham in Launch Magazine. There are several articles at this link but the one refering to global warming is titled "In Science, Ignorance is not Bliss" and in it he refers to things that I've never heard about, but then there are a lot of things that I haven't heard about. (lol)

    Maybe it will help.

    http://launchmagonline.com/index.php/Viewpoint/

  • 1 decade ago

    Funny I don't know any reputable scientific group that is predicting

    "that all life as we know it will be irrevocably altered, possibly even destroyed, by this change."

    and as to predicting weather that is one deniers keep going back to, and it doesn't work as an argument.

    http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/...

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